Key Highlights: Representative Don Davis has introduced the “No Betting on Your Own Race Act,” proposing civil penalties of up to $10,000 or triple the net financial gain for candidates trading on their own elections. The legislative push follows a high-profile disciplinary action by prediction exchange Kalshi against Laurie Buckhout, Davis’s Republican challenger, who bet ...
Key Highlights Kalshi’s 15-minute crypto and commodity markets generated $20.4 million in fees over a seven-day period ending October 5, accounting for 80% of non-sports fees. While Ether’s short-duration contracts climbed to 318 million in September, gold emerged as a major market driver by recording 542 million contracts traded during the month. Short-duration contracts deliver ...
Key Highlights: Prediction market Kalshi submitted a regulatory filing with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to introduce perpetual futures contracts linked to the Pepe meme coin. Just two days after the initial submission, the platform abruptly withdrew the proposal. The sudden withdrawal comes despite Kalshi previously listing other major meme tokens, including Dogecoin ...
Key Highlights: Polymarket is launching Protocol V2, replacing its legacy 2019 Gnosis CTF architecture with a complete mainnet transition scheduled for November 2. The upgrade consolidates markets into a single ERC-1155 position contract, adopts pUSD as collateral, and utilizes a multi-oracle aggregator featuring UMA and Chainlink. Following formal verification by Certora and extensive auditing, testing ...
Key Highlights: Polymarket is transitioning to Protocol V2, with a full mainnet switchover scheduled for November 2. The upgrade replaces the 2019 Gnosis CTF architecture with a single ERC-1155 contract, pUSD collateral, and a multi-oracle aggregator including UMA and Chainlink. Canary market testing runs from October 5 to October 30 following audits and formal verification ...
Key Highlights: A Galaxy study reveals that generalists on Polymarket slightly outperform topic specialists, with tech and science traders yielding the highest profitability rates while sports specialists recorded the lowest. Profitable prediction market accounts typically exhibit higher trade frequencies and larger position sizes, though risk is adjusted downward after both wins and losses. Polymarket faces ...
Key Highlights: The International Association of Gaming Regulators (IAGR) and North American Gaming Regulators Association (NAGRA) have backed New Jersey’s formal appeal asking the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) to review whether state gambling laws apply to prediction markets. Conflicting judicial rulings across Illinois, New Jersey, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Tennessee have produced a ...
Key Highlights Polling consensus from 270toWin indicates Democrats may flip the House of Representatives, while prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket suggest a Democratic flip of both the House and the Senate. The incoming composition of Congress will directly shape federal regulatory oversight for agencies including the SEC, CFTC, OCC, and the Treasury Department, along with ...
Key Highlights: Sequoia could lead a new Kalshi financing round, with partner Alfred Lin serving on Kalshi’s board. Kalshi is expanding from event contracts into financial and economic markets. Polymarket is also exploring a funding round of about $1 billion as investor interest in prediction markets grows. Sequoia Could Lead New Kalshi Financing Sequoia could ...
Key Highlights A federal appeals court ruled that Kalshi’s sports-event contracts are not federally regulated swaps, rejecting the prediction market’s argument that they fall under Commodity Futures Trading Commission jurisdiction. The three-judge panel agreed Kalshi had standing to sue but determined its contracts do not depend on events “associated with a potential financial, economic, or ...
Key Highlights New York Attorney General Letitia James and Governor Kathy Hochul filed a lawsuit Thursday accusing Polymarket of operating an unlicensed gambling business in violation of state law. The complaint alleges Polymarket avoided licensing requirements and taxes that fund public schools, youth sports, and problem gambling treatment, while allowing users aged 18 to 20 ...
Key Highlights The CFTC issued a staff advisory warning that “mention markets” — betting on what a specific individual might say or do — are “presumptively readily susceptible to manipulation.” The regulator distinguishes these markets from standard event contracts because outcomes depend on “the discrete conduct of a named person” rather than independently generated, externally ...