Key Highlights Federal preemption disputes intensify as three federal appellate courts split decisions on prediction markets, with two favoring state authority and one backing Kalshi. Utah Attorney General Derek Brown targets Kalshi over online gambling allegations following a favorable state ruling currently under appeal. Former CFTC Chair Gary Gensler files a Supreme Court brief arguing ...
Key Highlights: Robinhood is rapidly expanding its prediction market offerings through a partnership with federally regulated exchange Kalshi, branching well beyond traditional election wagering. Trading volumes are increasingly driven by financial and macroeconomic outcomes—such as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions—as well as ultra-short-term crypto contracts settling in just 15 minutes. Event contracts are serving ...
Key Highlights: CME Group CEO Terry Duffy argues crypto perpetual futures function as swaps rather than futures, placing them under the stricter post-2008 derivatives regulatory framework. The statements come amid an ongoing lawsuit filed by CME on June 18 against the CFTC, which approved a Kalshi Bitcoin perpetual contract classified as a futures product on ...
Key Highlights For eligible U.S. users trading directly on Polymarket US and Kalshi, the fee difference can be smaller than the price difference. A hypothetical taker purchase of 100 contracts at 40 cents costs $41.67 on Polymarket US and $41.68 on Kalshi. The example produces a one-cent difference in total cost, highlighting the importance of ...
Key Highlights Missouri authorities have issued formal warnings to event market operators, demanding they cease offering sports-based event contracts within 30 days or face legal enforcement. State officials argue these platforms unlawfully bypass licensing fees and a 10% wagering tax on adjusted gross revenue by classifying bets as CFTC-governed swaps. The dispute escalates a nationwide ...
Key Highlights: A Reuters/Ipsos survey of 4,506 U.S. adults revealed broad bipartisan pushback against election betting, with 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans opposing prediction markets on electoral outcomes. Prediction exchange Kalshi recently fined and suspended four congressional candidates for placing wagers on their own races, underscoring ongoing concerns over insider trading and conflicts ...
Key Highlights A New Taipei court approved regulatory measures enabling Taiwan’s communications watchdog and internet registry to restrict domestic access to Coinbase and prediction platform Kalshi. Taiwan’s Criminal Investigation Bureau sought the intervention over suspected violations of the Public Officials Election and Recall Act to protect election integrity and guard against foreign interference. The access ...
Key Highlights Prediction market platform Kalshi is actively investigating trading activity surrounding contracts that predicted the selection of Zacharia as press secretary. Zacharia had traded at an implied probability of roughly 1% prior to the announcement, prompting regulatory and market integrity scrutiny. Exchange rules permit Kalshi to freeze accounts and restrict fund withdrawals during pending ...
Key Highlights: A new regulatory proposal could bolster federal oversight arguments for Kalshi and Polymarket US against state gambling regulators by treating event contracts as swaps. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a separate interim final rule clarifying that traditional casino games and sports betting are excluded from swap definitions. While the event contract ...
Key Highlights: The CFTC has introduced an “interim final” rule taking immediate effect alongside a proposed framework targeting event contracts on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. The proposed rule formally integrates “event contracts, including those based on sports, politics, cultural, and weather-related events” into established U.S. swaps regulations under a 30-day public comment window. ...
Key Highlights: Kalshi has proposed a 10-year West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil contract designed to eliminate monthly rollover costs and physical delivery risks at Cushing, Oklahoma. Unlike typical derivatives, the contract cannot be self-certified and requires direct Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) review due to its quasi-perpetual nature. The initiative emerges amid heated rivalry ...
Key Highlights: Representative Don Davis has introduced the “No Betting on Your Own Race Act,” proposing civil penalties of up to $10,000 or triple the net financial gain for candidates trading on their own elections. The legislative push follows a high-profile disciplinary action by prediction exchange Kalshi against Laurie Buckhout, Davis’s Republican challenger, who bet ...