NBA Sophomore Watch: Five Breakout Candidates for the 2026-27 Season
With the 2026 NBA offseason largely settled and September underway, attention shifts to the upcoming campaign. Following previous analyses of potential 2027 free agents and comeback candidates, here are five second-year players — excluding the top three Rookie of the Year finishers — poised to make significant leaps.
Stephon Harper, San Antonio Spurs
The fourth-place finisher in Rookie of the Year voting arrived with a reputation as a downhill shot-creator from Rutgers. The No. 2 overall pick delivered immediately, averaging 11.8 points on 50.5% shooting with 3.9 assists in 22.6 minutes off the bench. He became just the fourth guard since 1990 to shoot better than 50% from the field as a rookie, joining Ben Simmons, Ayo Dosunmu, and Jalen Williams.
Harper elevated his game further in the postseason. He scored more efficiently, attacked the free-throw line more frequently, and held his own defensively against elite perimeter players including Anthony Edwards, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Jalen Brunson. His 25-point effort in Game 5 of the NBA Finals showcased preternatural poise for a teenager. With De’Aaron Fox managing a high ankle sprain, Harper occasionally looked like San Antonio’s second-best playmaker and perhaps its third-best player overall.
Development areas remain — particularly his 3-point shooting off the catch and dribble — but the playoff performance signals readiness for expanded responsibility. Opportunity may be complicated by Stephon Castle’s emergence as a starter, Fox’s impending max extension, and general manager Brian Wright’s public expression of “ultimate confidence” in Fox.
ESPN’s Michael C. Wright reported it was “expected that calls from Harper’s camp for a spot in the starting lineup will grow louder going into next season.” Harper himself told DJ Siddiqi of RG.org that whether he starts or comes off the bench is “not going to affect me and how I approach every day.” Key questions persist: Can he function as a primary facilitator without Fox or Castle alongside him? San Antonio’s two highest-turnover playoff games occurred when Fox sat against Oklahoma City. If Harper answers affirmatively, the Spurs may have another All-Star in the making.
Isaiah Bailey, Utah Jazz
Like Harper, Bailey entered the league as a highly touted prospect from Rutgers. Unlike Harper, he joined a franchise openly prioritizing draft position over wins. The 19-year-old navigated valleys — an early benching for defensive effort, a hip injury costing him 10 games — and peaks, closing the season averaging just over 17 points, five rebounds, two assists, and two stocks over his final 30 games, including three 30-point March outings.
Bailey led the Jazz in minutes, finished fifth among qualifying rookies in scoring (13.8 PPG), splashed the third-most 3-pointers among freshmen, and earned All-Rookie Second Team honors. Head coach Will Hardy’s trust grew throughout the year.
The context has shifted dramatically. Utah now features three 20-plus PPG scorers — Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Keyonte George — and drafted Kansas phenom Darryn Peterson as the new projected star wing. With Markkanen, Jackson, and George locked into the starting lineup alongside veteran center Jusuf Nurkić, only one starting spot remains for Bailey or Peterson. After 61 rookie starts, a sixth-man role would represent a significant adjustment.
Competition for wing minutes intensified with the additions of Josh Okogie and Josh Green — proven low-usage 3-and-D contributors on playoff teams — alongside fourth-year wing Brice Sensabaugh and big man Kyle Filipowski. Bailey’s path to meaningful opportunity has narrowed considerably. A back spasm that limited his Summer League to eight minutes offered no clarity.
Veteran teammate Kevin Love offered perspective last season: “He’s just so talented and he’s not even scratching the surface yet. There’s so many things that he does out there that you just say, ‘Wow.'” Consistent 3-point shooting and off-ball contributions — Bailey noted at Summer League that “in every workout he’d undergone, ‘we start with defense'” — could force his way into a crowded perimeter rotation.
Jesse Beringer, Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota’s draft-night maneuvering brought LaMelo Ball and Jonathan Kuminga but left a glaring hole at backup center. Rudy Gobert logged 2,752 combined regular- and postseason minutes in 2025-26. Of the 1,780 minutes he rested, 1,467 featured Naz Reid or Julius Randle — both now departed. No veteran center remains behind the 13-year pro, who has played 70-plus games in all four Minnesota seasons.
That vacuum elevates Beringer, a 19-year-old with fewer than 350 rookie minutes, into a critical backup role behind a championship-aspiring core led by Anthony Edwards. The Wolves bet big on the 6-foot-11 center’s readiness for nightly minutes and rim-protection duties.
Early indicators justify the confidence. In limited action, Beringer grabbed 16.1% of Minnesota’s missed shots (third among qualifiers) and blocked 7.2% of opponent 2-point attempts (also third). He finished 66.3% from the field on pick-and-roll dives, putbacks, and transition finishes.
Head coach Chris Finch praised him in January: “He’s really good. He’s got good feel in the drop coverage. You don’t see that often for a guy his age. He goes after absolutely everything. He challenges everything he possibly can. He has switch capability, too.”
President of basketball operations Tim Connelly echoed that optimism at Las Vegas Summer League: “I think he’s going to make a huge impact defensively. He doesn’t make mistakes offensively. He’s exactly the type of work-ethic, self-motivated, tough player we’re looking for, and I think he has a physical profile that only a handful of the guys in the league have.” A strong G League stint (15.3 points, 11.3 rebounds, 2.4 blocks in 30.6 MPG) and a one-game Summer League cameo that convinced the Wolves to shut him down further bolster the case.
Jordan Fears & KJ Queen, New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans made moves — hiring Jamahl Mosley, drafting Jaron Pierre Jr., re-signing DeAndre Jordan, acquiring Bennedict Mathurin, trading Jordan Hawkins and Micah Peavy — but retained a veteran core that complicates development paths for their 2025 lottery picks.
Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy III, Herb Jones, Dejounte Murray, Jordan Poole, and Yves Missi all remain. Over the past two seasons, Williamson, Murphy, Jones, and Murray shared the floor for just 149 total minutes. Executive VP Joe Dumars told Rod Walker of NOLA.com: “We have really good talent on our team and if we can stay healthy, we have a competitive team.”
That competitive outlook squeezes Fears and Queen, both All-Rookie Second Teamers averaging 11-plus points and three assists. With Zion starting, Queen faces a frontcourt lacking spacing, rim protection, and defensive rebounding. His best fit likely remains the bench. If Murray starts, Fears stays at backup point guard — lineups featuring both rookies got outscored by eight points per 100 non-garbage-time possessions last year.
Adding Mathurin — a high-usage, non-elite 3-point shooter with neutral defense — to the second unit further muddies creation opportunities. Mosley’s defense-first mandate may also curb minutes for two rookies who profile as damaging defenders. Their path to larger roles requires proving they can contribute without the ball and maximize possessions with it. Dumars and Mosley must thread a needle: experiment with small-ball lineups, potentially move Poole’s expiring $34 million contract for a better fit, and balance immediate competitiveness with sophomore development.
Cameron Murray-Boyles, Toronto Raptors
The 6-foot-7 South Carolina product posted arguably the league’s best defensive rookie season, posting 1.5 steals, 1.5 blocks, and 4.5 deflections per 36 minutes — the versatile, undersized havoc-wreaker archetype Toronto has long coveted alongside alumni Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby and current two-way star Scottie Barnes. The Raptors doubled down by drafting Santa Clara’s Allen Graves.
Murray-Boyles posted a defensive estimated plus-minus of +1.5 (Dunks & Threes), matched only by Victor Wembanyama, Amen and Ausar Thompson, Evan Mobley, Dyson Daniels, and Jose Alvarado among rookies over the past six seasons. Offensively, he shot 58% from the field and 34% from three on limited volume, grabbed 12% of available offensive rebounds, and maintained a near 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio.
He thrived in Darko Rajaković’s system, with Toronto outscoring opponents by 3.8 points per 100 non-garbage-time possessions during his minutes — the fifth-best on-off swing among Raptors with 1,000-plus minutes (Cleaning the Glass). Murray-Boyles described his approach: “I know who we have on our team. We have a really, really good roster, very talented guys that can score, that can put the ball in the rim. So it was just me finding where I fit in and sticking to it, just to elevate the team as much as possible.”
The playoffs amplified his profile. Against Cleveland, he averaged 14.4 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 2.4 combined blocks/steals in 27.9 minutes on 65.6% shooting. He guarded Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley, James Harden, and Donovan Mitchell, becoming a staple of fourth-quarter and crunch-time lineups alongside Barnes.
Rajaković emphasized measured growth: “It has to be step-by-step […] It has to be slow and steady progress. He’s going to, obviously, be working on his shooting, but I’m not putting a prime focus on that.” A thumb injury derailed a Summer League attempt to expand his playmaking role. The arrival of another 6-foot-7 defensive disruptor with more offensive pedigree may further shape his usage.
Still, Murray-Boyles projects as Toronto’s backup four behind Barnes, backup five behind Jakob Poeltl, and potential closing-lineup five in a switch-everything “Death Lineup” featuring Kawhi Leonard, Barnes, and Murray-Boyles — should Leonard return. Rajaković refuses to cap expectations: “At 20 years old, we don’t know what are his limits. We don’t want to put any cap on his development.”
Other Sophomores to Monitor
- Cedric Coward, Memphis Grizzlies: Joins returning Zach Edey and mega-prospect Cameron Boozer in an exciting frontcourt.
- Egor Dëmin, Brooklyn Nets: Strong Summer League suggests a fun backcourt partnership with Mikel Brown Jr.
- Mohamed Diawara, New York Knicks: Could follow Deuce McBride’s path from bargain deal to major rotation role.
- Maxime Raynaud, Sacramento Kings: Offensive flashes stood out in an otherwise dim rookie season.
- Yanic Konan Niederhauser, LA Clippers: Lisfranc injury sidelines him early, but showed promise as a screen-and-dive rim protector.
- Khaman Maluach, Phoenix Suns: Barely 450 rookie minutes, but turned heads with a strong Summer League showing.
