Key Highlights Kalshi has geofenced users across multiple states—including Nevada, Washington, and Michigan—as regulatory and legal battles escalate nationwide. Recent federal appeals court rulings from the Second and Ninth Circuits have dealt major blows to prediction market platforms, paving the way for state enforcement and tribal restriction enforcements. State officials, including those in Utah who ...
Key Highlights: Robinhood is rapidly expanding its prediction market offerings through a partnership with federally regulated exchange Kalshi, branching well beyond traditional election wagering. Trading volumes are increasingly driven by financial and macroeconomic outcomes—such as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions—as well as ultra-short-term crypto contracts settling in just 15 minutes. Event contracts are serving ...
Key Highlights Missouri authorities have issued formal warnings to event market operators, demanding they cease offering sports-based event contracts within 30 days or face legal enforcement. State officials argue these platforms unlawfully bypass licensing fees and a 10% wagering tax on adjusted gross revenue by classifying bets as CFTC-governed swaps. The dispute escalates a nationwide ...
Key Highlights: Cboe Global Markets is preparing to launch binary options tied directly to corporate key performance indicators (KPIs), featuring more than 100 approved metrics across 23 major companies such as Apple and Nvidia. Unlike prediction markets regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Cboe’s products will be cash-settled securities options overseen by the ...
Key Highlights The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has released two new regulatory proposals addressing prediction markets. Under the proposed framework, event contracts are formally categorized as swaps under federal derivatives law. The measures establish explicit boundaries to differentiate federally regulated financial contracts from traditional gambling. CFTC Unveils Dual Regulatory Proposals for Prediction Markets The ...
Key Highlights: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has sparked widespread industry discussion following a new regulatory announcement concerning swaps and event contracts. Social media engagement reflects heightened stakeholder interest regarding how proposed oversight updates may reshape market operations and compliance expectations. Market participants are turning their focus to the forthcoming public comment period, which ...
Key Highlights: A new regulatory proposal could bolster federal oversight arguments for Kalshi and Polymarket US against state gambling regulators by treating event contracts as swaps. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a separate interim final rule clarifying that traditional casino games and sports betting are excluded from swap definitions. While the event contract ...
Key Highlights: The CFTC has introduced an “interim final” rule taking immediate effect alongside a proposed framework targeting event contracts on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. The proposed rule formally integrates “event contracts, including those based on sports, politics, cultural, and weather-related events” into established U.S. swaps regulations under a 30-day public comment window. ...
Key Highlights Kalshi’s 15-minute crypto and commodity markets generated $20.4 million in fees over a seven-day period ending October 5, accounting for 80% of non-sports fees. While Ether’s short-duration contracts climbed to 318 million in September, gold emerged as a major market driver by recording 542 million contracts traded during the month. Short-duration contracts deliver ...
Key Highlights The CFTC issued a staff advisory warning that “mention markets” — betting on what a specific individual might say or do — are “presumptively readily susceptible to manipulation.” The regulator distinguishes these markets from standard event contracts because outcomes depend on “the discrete conduct of a named person” rather than independently generated, externally ...
Robinhood Crypto Volume Surges 61% in August, but Prediction Markets Steal the Show Robinhood Markets reported a sharp rebound in cryptocurrency trading activity during August, though the standout growth story remains its rapidly expanding prediction market business. Crypto Trading Rebounds From July Lows Notional crypto trading volume—the total dollar value of assets bought and sold ...
Kalshi Partners With Alpaca to Expand Prediction Markets Beyond the US Kalshi is partnering with brokerage infrastructure provider Alpaca to expand access to its event…