US retailers expect weak Easter days after announcing the economic data for March
- Inflation and poor economy make Bitcoin attractive as a hedging, but some experts also expect the Fed to tighten monetary policy.
- Weak holiday trading would favor volatility surveys from cryptocursions. But all of this depends on the new US economic indicators coming this week.
The cryptoma markets are heading for a possibly volatile week, since the retailers expect the publication of four US economic indicators before Good Friday. The upcoming data, inflation expectations, retail sales, industrial production and the new labor market data could affect the prices of digital assets, since the macroeconomic conditions remain unsafe.
Since less liquidity can be expected due to the holiday, even small surprises in these reports could trigger strong reactions at Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and other cryptocurrencies.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York will publish its survey on the inflation expectations of consumers for March on Monday. The forecasts for the increase could achieve 3.3 percent, compared to 3.1 percent in February. According to the measurements of the University of Michigan, the inflation rate is much higher, but the one -year inflation expectation is 6.7 % and is therefore the highest rate of inflation since 1981.
#Inflation #Economy
Per @YahooFinance: Consumer pessimism about future inflation has reached a new high since 1981, with expectations jumping to 6.7% in April from 4.9% the previous month. Just three months ago, consumers predicted 3.3% inflation for the next year.— Finance Intel (@intel_finance) April 14, 2025
In the past ten years, consumers’ inflation expectations have moved between 2 % and 3 %. After 2020, an escalation began, which reached its peak at 5.3 % in early 2022 before stabilizing. The new increase in 2025 gives rise to the fact that consumers are increasingly expecting a long -term increase in price, which is influenced by persistent inflation, trade tariffs and geopolitical instability.
If the inflation expectations continue to increase, the Federal Reserve could come under pressure to maintain or tighten its political course. While Bitcoin is often seen as inflation protection due to its limited offer, higher interest rates tend to strain more risky systems. A weaker inflation value could reduce the fears of aggressive tightening and make crypto investors who are looking for risk engagement.
Retail sales-DATN provide information about the health of consumers
The report published on Wednesday about retail sales in the United States in March will allow a closer look at the trends in consumer expenses. The report for February showed growth of 3.1 % compared to the previous year, but the recent trade voltages and higher prices could have weakened the results for March. If the overall retail sales are weaker, economists suspect that this could be due to a weakening of the recession, which also leads to shifts on the market.
Digital assets have shown increased sensitivity to consumer behavior in recent months. A decline in retail expenses could lead to a risk -friendly mood in the traditional markets and direct demand towards decentralized alternatives such as Bitcoin and Solana (SOL). Conversely, strong retail data could reject investors’ interest in shares and dampen the appetite for crypto systems at short notice.
Slipping industrial production can have the mood tipped over
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will announce industrial production for March. The value of the index fell by 0.7 % in February, and the outlook for March expects a decline in the index by 0.2 %. Any further decline in industrial numbers could worry about the slowdown of growth.
In connection with the crypto industry, this information could be useful to tell stories about the stability and decentralization of blockchains. Since financial liberalization, investors could see slow industrial growth than a sign that they have to expand into other investment areas. However, if the industrial markets develop better, the wide markets will restrict the cryptocurrencies and reduce the status of a safe port.
Energy tokens and mining companies could also be affected. Lower supply services can lead to higher energy costs and affect the profitability of the Bitcoin mining. Managers from the industry have already given their concern about unstable energy policy and their effects on long -term profitability.
Unemployment figures can trigger “Easter volatility”
The data on the initial applications on unemployment support that will be published a week on Thursday also fall into a similar category. Since the numbers are published before the time before the time of the credit, the data leads to overreactions in the courses. This can arouse the expectation that a recession is imminent, and if the result is lower than expected, the risk markets in this discrepancy can find a short -term consolation.
The low trade volumes can even reinforce the fluctuation at various coins, including the USDT and the USDC, since the dealers change their positions depending on the so -called safety concerns. If two different forecasts as macroeconomic data and political forecasts are the focus, even a routine such as unemployment reports may have significant effects.
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