Fed minutes keep Bitcoin traders guessing as Iran risk clouds next four weeks
- Federal Reserve minutes show officials debating both possible rate cuts and possible rate hikes, with inflation and the Iran war pulling policy in opposite directions.
- Bitcoin is hovering near $71,000 and analysts are divided between a rebound if risk appetite improves and a further pullback if macro pressures return.
The last meeting minutes the Federal Reserve did not give the markets a clear signal. Some officials said rate cuts could be needed later this year if growth weakens. Others argued that upward adjustments could be necessary if inflation remains above target, particularly if higher energy costs continue to impact the economy.
The Fed left interest rates unchanged in March at 3.50% to 3.75%, while its forecasts still pointed to a median policy rate of 3.4% by year-end, broadly implying a rate cut this year rather than a rapid easing cycle.
Interest rates, oil and the return of macroeconomics
This is significant for Bitcoin because the token trades more like a macro-sensitive asset than a pure safe-haven asset. It rose with general relief following the two-week truce between the US and Iran, but the truce already appears fragile and oil prices remain well above pre-war levels. Traders now estimate the chances of a Fed cut by year-end to be only about one in four, after briefly betting more aggressively on easing.
The $75,000 question
For the next four weeks, the short-term uptrend is clear. If the truce holds, oil prices remain contained, and weaker inflation data restores confidence in future Fed cuts, Bitcoin could rise further from the current $71,000 level.
This case is also supported by renewed institutional demand, as Bitcoin ETFs raised about $471 million on April 6, the largest daily inflow since late February. Longer-term bulls like Bernstein have argued that Bitcoin may have already found a bottom as institutional ownership reshapes the market.
The bear market case is honestly less complicated. If the ceasefire with Iran fails, oil prices rise again and hopes of a rate cut fade, Bitcoin could quickly lose momentum. More cautious analysts are watching to see whether Bitcoin can decisively reclaim $75,000. If that’s not the case, the market still looks vulnerable to another pullback rather than a clear breakout.
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