Bitcoin Recovers 3% to $79,143 as Trump Signals Iran Diplomacy, but Geopolitical Risks Persist

Bitcoin ($BTC) climbed approximately 3% to $79,143 on Monday after briefly touching $79,325, buoyed by comments from U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting Iran wants to reach a deal with Washington. The recovery comes despite conflicting statements from Tehran and ongoing military tensions that continue to pressure energy markets.

Trump Comments Spark Risk-On Sentiment

Bitcoin’s rebound accelerated after President Trump posted on Truth Social that Tehran was eager for an agreement.

“The failing Nation of Iran wants to make a deal, quickly and badly,”

Trump wrote. He added that he would decide whether the United States engages with Tehran, though he said Washington was open to the idea. The remarks introduced the possibility of renewed talks after months of military exchanges and repeated failures to secure a lasting agreement.

During the recovery, Bitcoin first moved above $78,000 and reached $78,940 before extending gains. A daily Binance chart on TradingView showed BTC opening at $76,842, dipping to $76,388, and later peaking at $79,325. The asset traded near $79,143 at the time of capture, representing a 3% daily gain.

U.S. equities mirrored the cryptocurrency’s move. Approximately $570 billion returned to stocks within three hours after the session had earlier erased more than $600 billion. Technology shares had faced additional pressure after executives from artificial intelligence companies called for slower development to address safety risks, adding another layer of uncertainty for a sector that has driven much of the recent U.S. equity rally.

However, Iranian state media rejected Trump’s claim that Tehran was seeking a quick agreement, leaving the market without confirmation from both governments. LiveSquawk separately cited Iran’s ILNA news agency as saying the United States had sought a “phased” agreement, based on information attributed to a Pakistani source. The report did not establish that Washington and Tehran had accepted final terms.

Oil Above $100 Keeps U.S.-Iran Risk Active

The diplomatic dispute unfolds as attacks involving Iran-aligned forces continue to pressure oil production and shipping routes.

According to Reuters, Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis launched missiles and drones at a military airbase in Khamis Mushait, Saudi Arabia. The group said it targeted aircraft hangars, radar equipment, runways, and ammunition storage sites in response to Saudi strikes in Yemen.

In a separate attack, which Riyadh blamed on Iran-backed fighters in Iraq, Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipeline was taken offline. The route allows oil exports to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, making it critical while traffic through the strait remains restricted.

Traders told Reuters that an extended pipeline closure could affect as much as 4% of global oil supply. Brent crude rose more than 4% after the weekend before paring gains following Trump’s comments. It later traded near $106 per barrel, while U.S. crude remained above $100.

For American consumers, Reuters reported that the average retail diesel price had reached a record above $6.23 per gallon. Sustained energy costs could feed inflation and complicate the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decisions, creating a direct link between the conflict and the conditions facing U.S. Bitcoin investors.

As crypto.news previously reported, Bitfinex analysts identified energy costs and real Treasury yields as restraints on Bitcoin. The analysts said an oil shock could keep inflation expectations elevated, while tighter monetary policy would reduce liquidity without resolving the loss of energy supply.

Oman had planned to host Iranian and Gulf officials for discussions over the future operation of the Strait of Hormuz. Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi postponed the meeting “in the interests of consensus,” without announcing a replacement date. Iran said Saudi Arabia had requested the delay. Tehran also published a list of 77 vessels it said had breached its operating rules in the strait, warning that future violations could lead to fines, detention, or confiscation.

Bitcoin Faces Technical Resistance Near $80,000

Technical readings show Bitcoin has returned above the center of its daily Bollinger Bands but has not cleared the upper boundary.

• Bollinger Band midpoint: ~$78,521
• Upper band: ~$81,035
• Lower band: ~$76,008

BTC’s move above the midpoint gives buyers control of the immediate range, although the upper band and recent highs create resistance between $80,000 and $81,035.

A one-week CoinGlass liquidation heatmap shows the largest nearby concentration of leveraged positions just below $80,000. The brightest band appears around $79,900 to $80,000, making the area a possible target if buyers extend the advance.

Several smaller liquidation pools sit between roughly $80,200 and $80,700. A clean move through that region would bring the Bollinger Band ceiling near $81,035 into focus, followed by the larger $82,000 area identified in recent Bitfinex analysis.

Momentum Signals Remain Mixed

Momentum remains less certain. The daily MACD line stood near 1,579, below its signal line around 2,211, while the histogram had fallen to approximately minus 631. Both MACD lines remained above zero, but the bearish crossover and red histogram bars showed that momentum had weakened after Bitcoin’s sharp August rally.

Price action has also remained uneven since BTC first moved above $80,000. Buyers have defended pullbacks toward the mid-$76,000 area, yet several attempts to hold above $81,000 have failed. The current move has returned Bitcoin to the upper half of that range without confirming a breakout.

Key Support Levels to Watch

On the downside, the Bollinger midpoint near $78,521 forms the first technical support. Losing it would expose the $77,500 to $78,000 region, where the heatmap shows a series of smaller leveraged clusters.

The largest lower liquidity concentration sits around $76,000, close to the daily lower Bollinger Band. A sustained break below that zone could expose another pool near $75,000 to $75,400.

Fed Policy Adds Another Test for U.S. Investors

The Iran conflict is not the only event capable of disrupting Bitcoin’s recovery. The Federal Reserve meets on Sept. 15 and 16, with its policy statement, updated economic projections, and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference due on Wednesday.

Markets had priced an 87% probability of a quarter-point increase before the meeting. Such a decision would move the federal funds target range from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%.

Bitfinex analysts said the Fed’s projections could matter more for Bitcoin than the rate announcement itself because they will show whether officials expect one increase or a longer series of moves. Higher Treasury yields can raise the return available from government securities, increasing competition for capital held in non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin.

U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds provide another measure of demand from American investors. The products attracted $986.7 million during the week ending Sept. 4, after taking in $924.5 million the previous week. Three consecutive positive weeks brought the combined inflow to about $3.8 billion.

Fed policy, oil prices, and developments around the Strait of Hormuz will now overlap with the liquidation levels visible on the Bitcoin chart. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to release its decision on Wednesday afternoon, followed by Warsh’s press conference and the central bank’s updated economic projections.