20 million Bitcoin have been mined: the supply bottleneck is getting closer
- Bitcoin has reached the 20 million coin mark, with only around 1 million BTC remaining.
- The supply bottleneck comes much earlier than 2140: 99 percent of all Bitcoin could be mined by 2035.
The Bitcoin network has reached the mark of 20 million BTC mined. This means that 95.24 percent of the maximum total amount of 21 million Bitcoin has already been spent; There are only around 1 million BTC left. According to Mempool, the block cameData aus dem US-Mining-Pool Foundry USA.
“Most people see that there is 1 million BTC left and think Bitcoin will continue to be mined at a significant rate for another century. Here’s what the math actually looks like: 99 percent of all Bitcoin will be mined by 2035.”
With this Classification The X-Account Milk Road made a point that is often lost in the debate: the remaining quantity sounds large, but the actual output rhythm is no longer that.
The Bitcoin supply shortage is getting closer
The reason is the halving, which is firmly anchored in the protocol. The block subsidy is halved every 210,000 blocks, roughly every four years. Since the halving on April 20, 2024, it has been 3.125 BTC per block; With around 144 blocks per day, this only corresponds to around 450 new Bitcoins per day. This is already a completely different order of magnitude than in previous cycles.
According to current estimates, the next cut is expected on April 17, 2028 at block height 1,050,000. Then the block subsidy drops to 1.5625 BTC, which means that the daily new issue will mathematically fall to around 225 BTC. Another halving will follow in 2032. Based on this issuance plan, the 99 percent mark of the total will be reached just under three years after the halving in 2032 – i.e. around 2035. Milk Road explained via X:
“The figure of 114 years until full issuance is technically correct. But it is misleading. Bitcoin’s effective supply plateau will be reached in the next decade.”
This is exactly where the real meaning of the 20 million milestone lies: 2140 is not the economically relevant turning point, but the fact that the additional supply will be pushed further and further towards zero in the coming years.
The popular statement that the “last Bitcoin” will be mined in 2140 is useful as a shorthand, but technically inaccurate. Fidelity points out that the issuance is asymptotic: after 32 halvings, the subsidy from the smallest Bitcoin unit, the satoshi, practically drops to a trivial remainder; the 33rd halving pushes it below 1 sat, so 21 million Bitcoin will never be reached exactly.
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