Americans are bracing for a sharp jump at the pump this week as escalating geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East continue to tighten global oil supplies, according to leading energy analysts.
Tom Kloza, chief energy advisor at Gulf Oil, issued a stark warning Tuesday that the coming 24 hours would deliver “staggering increases at the pump for both gasoline and diesel.”
In a post on X, Kloza explained that fuel margins—the spread between wholesale costs and retail prices—“yet to catch up with previous wholesale hikes.” He specifically flagged the “Great Lakes and Rocky Mountain states in particular” for the most dramatic spikes.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, echoed that urgency on social media Tuesday. “we’ve reached a new milestone—the U.S. average diesel price has hit $6.301/gal while gasoline is up to $4.355/gal. I expect both of these to jump noticeably over the next 48 hours. diesel could hit $6.60/gal in a few days, surpassing the inflation-adjusted peak seen in 2022.”
National Averages Climb Above $4.37
The latest data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) confirms the upward trajectory. The national average for regular gasoline reached $4.37 per gallon on Wednesday, up from $4.33 on Tuesday and $4.22 a week earlier. Year-over-year, the average has surged more than a dollar from $3.19 per gallon.
State-by-State Breakdown: Where Prices Are Highest and Lowest
California continues to lead the nation with the highest average price at $6.04 per gallon. Five other states—Washington, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon, and Alaska—also recorded averages above the $5 threshold.
Conversely, Indiana posted the lowest statewide average at $3.75 per gallon, though that figure remains up from $3.12 a year ago. Only ten states reported averages below $4 per gallon:
- Texas ($3.8788)
- Mississippi ($3.8955)
- Louisiana ($3.9278)
- Alabama ($3.9446)
- Arkansas ($3.9699)
- Kansas ($3.9733)
- Missouri ($3.9745)
- Kentucky ($3.9903)
- Tennessee ($3.9970)
- Indiana ($3.75)
In 34 states, the average price sits between $4 and $5 per gallon, reflecting the broad geographic reach of the current price surge.
