The Senior Citizens League Predicts 3.5% COLA for Social Security in 2027
The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) has released its final prediction for Social Security’s 2027 Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA), forecasting a 3.5% increase. This projection is 0.1 percentage points lower than last month’s estimate but remains 0.7 percentage points higher than the 2.8% COLA applied for 2026 and a full percentage point above the 2.5% adjustment for 2025.
Key Details Behind the 2027 COLA Projection
The Social Security Administration will announce the official 2027 COLA on October 14, 2026, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) for September. The government calculates the COLA by averaging the yearly change in the CPI-W for July, August, and September. The August CPI-W, released today, came in at 3.5%, while the July CPI-W, released last month, registered 3.4%.
What This Means for Beneficiaries
If TSCL’s projection holds, the average monthly benefit check will rise by $67.90. The current average beneficiary receives $1,940.08 per month; a 3.5% COLA would increase that amount to $2,007.98. The adjustment applies a percentage increase to all benefit checks. For example, a beneficiary currently receiving $2,000 per month would see their check grow to $2,070 under the predicted COLA. The new COLA takes effect on January 1, 2027.
Senior Dissatisfaction With Recent COLAs
Seniors have expressed strong dissatisfaction with the last two COLAs. According to TSCL’s 2026 Senior Survey, 89% of older Americans believed the 2026 COLA was too low and that their monthly benefits would fall behind inflation. The survey also found that 44% of seniors rely entirely on Social Security for their income.
Expert Commentary: Shannon Benton on COLA Limitations
TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the final CPI-W reading and the structural shortcomings of the current COLA mechanism:
“The biggest thing we’re watching with the COLA announcement coming are short-term shocks to the economy that push inflation way up or down in the next 30 days. Of the three CPI-W figures used to calculate the COLA, two are already in.”
“No matter if the COLA announcement comes in slightly higher or slightly lower than our prediction, seniors will probably end up disappointed in the long run. The reality is that older Americans allocate their budgets differently than people still in the workforce, so inflation hits them differently. The CPI-W captures the experience of urban wage earners, which doesn’t represent the average senior’s budget.
“The COLA only happening once a year puts life on hold for a lot of seniors. When prices rise, they don’t rise next January when your benefit check goes up. They rise right now. We need to consider COLAs that compound quarterly or monthly so seniors can keep up throughout the year when inflation comes in above Federal Reserve targets, like in 2026.”
About The Senior Citizens League
The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) is one of the nation’s largest nonpartisan seniors’ groups. Established in 1992 as a special project of The Retired Enlisted Association, its mission is to promote and assist members and supporters, educate and alert senior citizens about their rights and freedoms as U.S. citizens, and protect and defend the benefits seniors have earned and paid for. TSCL consists of vocally active senior citizens concerned about the protection of their Social Security, Medicare, and veteran or military retiree benefits. To learn more, visit https://seniorsleague.org/about-us/.
About the TSCL COLA Model
TSCL issues a new prediction of the next Social Security COLA each month using its statistical model. The model incorporates the Consumer Price Index, the Federal Reserve interest rate, and the national unemployment rate to make its predictions, updating throughout the year in response to economic conditions. A new version of the model, v1.2, was released in January 2025. This version updates data handling to align with the federal fiscal year rather than the calendar year and reduces each prediction’s reliance on previous predictions made throughout the federal fiscal year. For additional information about the model, contact Alex Moore, TSCL’s statistician, at [email protected].
Contact Information
- Shannon Benton, Executive Director: [email protected]; 703-548-5568
- Alex Moore, Statistician: [email protected]; 571-349-2658
