Mercedes is on course to claim its first Formula 1 drivers’ and constructors’ double since the COVID-affected 2020 campaign. The German team has won 11 of the 17 Grands Prix held so far in 2026, with most of those victories arriving early before its rivals began to close the gap.
The Silver Arrows lead the constructors’ standings with 578 points, 134 clear of second-placed Ferrari. Their drivers Andrea Kimi Antonelli and George Russell occupy the top two places in the drivers’ championship, with Antonelli holding a 102-point advantage over Russell.
Antonelli leads Mercedes’ charge for a historic double
Antonelli is set to deliver Mercedes’ first drivers’ title since 2020, ending a period in which Max Verstappen dominated before Lando Norris became champion. He can mathematically clinch his maiden world title at the next round in Austin, although the championship is considered more likely to be settled a week later in Mexico City.
Mercedes’ constructors’ championship could take longer to secure. The team last won the teams’ crown in 2021 before Red Bull and McLaren moved ahead during the ground-effect era. With six rounds remaining in 2026, however, Mercedes holds a substantial advantage over Ferrari and the rest of the field.
Photo caption: Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes, Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari. Photo by: James Sutton / LAT Images via Getty Images.
Four teams retain a mathematical chance
There are 258 constructors’ championship points still available, provided the Qatar and Abu Dhabi Grands Prix proceed as scheduled amid the ongoing Middle Eastern conflict. Under that condition, four teams remain mathematically capable of winning the 2026 F1 world title: Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull.
Mercedes leads Ferrari by 134 points, while McLaren and Red Bull are 239 and 246 points adrift respectively. Racing Bulls sit fifth with 100 points, 478 behind the leaders.
| Position | Team | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mercedes | 578 |
| 2 | Ferrari | 444 |
| 3 | McLaren | 339 |
| 4 | Red Bull | 332 |
| 5 | Racing Bulls | 100 |
| 6 | Alpine | 68 |
| 7 | Haas | 30 |
| 8 | Audi | 23 |
| 9 | Williams | 12 |
| 10 | Aston Martin | 7 |
| 11 | Cadillac | 0 |
Why Austin is likely to eliminate McLaren and Red Bull
A total of 215 championship points will remain after the United States Grand Prix in Austin. McLaren and Red Bull must both finish the race no more than 214 points behind Mercedes to remain mathematically within reach.
Mercedes enters the race with nine more victories than either McLaren or Red Bull, giving it a decisive advantage in the countback of wins. Even if McLaren and Red Bull reduce their points deficits to 215 in Texas, Mercedes’ greater win total is expected to remove them from the championship fight.
For McLaren, the reigning champion, that would require an advantage of at least 25 points over Mercedes at Austin. Red Bull would need to outscore Mercedes by at least 32 points. Those scenarios are considered unlikely, leaving Ferrari as the only realistic challenger to the German team.
Ferrari will remain within 214 points of Mercedes regardless of the result in Austin, so the constructors’ championship cannot be decided at the United States Grand Prix.
Mexico provides a theoretical title route, but Brazil is more likely
Ferrari’s worst-case scenario in Austin is a double non-points finish while Mercedes completes a one-two. That result would leave a 177-point gap between the two teams and give Mercedes a route to its ninth constructors’ title in Mexico City. A win would move Mercedes level with Williams on the all-time list, behind Ferrari with 16 titles and McLaren with 10.
Provided Qatar and Abu Dhabi go ahead, 172 points are available across the four Grands Prix following Mexico. Under the worst-case Austin scenario, Mercedes would need to ensure Ferrari did not outscore it by at least six points in Mexico to maintain the strongest position in the title race. No sprint races remain in the 2026 calendar.
Photo caption: Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes. Photo by: Sam Bagnall / Sutton Images via Getty Images.
| Grand Prix | Mercedes points haul | Ferrari points haul |
|---|---|---|
| Australia | 43 | 27 |
| China | 43 | 27 |
| Japan | 37 | 23 |
| Miami | 37 | 12 |
| Canada | 25 | 30 |
| Monaco | 25 | 18 |
| Barcelona | 18 | 25 |
| Austria | 40 | 14 |
| United Kingdom | 18 | 40 |
| Belgium | 25 | 30 |
| Hungary | 21 | 22 |
| Netherlands | 33 | 22 |
| Italy | 43 | 8 |
| Spain | 35 | 12 |
| Azerbaijan | 35 | 20 |
| Malaysia | 18 | 27 |
| Singapore | 17 | 26 |
Across the 17 Grands Prix, Mercedes outscored Ferrari by an average of 7.6 points. If that scoring differential continued across the next two rounds, the gap would fall to 149 points, making a title-clinching result in Mexico difficult. Brazil is therefore the more likely destination for Mercedes to become world constructors’ champion.
Why This Matters
Mercedes’ position at the start of the new regulations reflects both the team’s 11 race wins and the strength of Antonelli and Russell. A drivers’ championship would be the team’s first since 2020, while victory in the constructors’ standings would produce its ninth team title and complete the first double since the COVID-struck 2020 season.
The countback of victories also gives Mercedes an additional advantage beyond its points lead. McLaren and Red Bull would need to overcome both substantial points deficits and Mercedes’ superior win total, making Ferrari the only realistic challenger after Austin.
There remains uncertainty over the final rounds because Qatar and Abu Dhabi are conditional on the Middle East situation. The immediate focus, however, is the United States Grand Prix, where Antonelli can win his first championship and Ferrari can begin closing the constructors’ gap. Mexico offers the earliest possible conclusion for the team title, while Brazil is the more likely scene of the championship presentation.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many teams can still win the 2026 F1 world title?
Four teams remain mathematically in contention: Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull. The calculation assumes that the Qatar and Abu Dhabi Grands Prix take place, leaving 258 constructors’ championship points available.
Can Mercedes win the constructors’ championship at the United States Grand Prix?
No. Ferrari will remain within 214 points of Mercedes regardless of the Austin result, so the constructors’ title cannot be decided there. McLaren and Red Bull are also expected to drop out of mathematical contention after the race because Mercedes holds a nine-win countback advantage.
When can Mercedes clinch the 2026 F1 titles?
Antonelli can win the drivers’ title in Austin, although Mexico is considered more likely. The constructors’ crown is mathematically possible in Mexico under the worst-case scenario for Ferrari, but Brazil is the likelier venue for Mercedes to secure its ninth team championship.
