- Red Bull trails McLaren by just seven points in the 2025 Formula 1 Constructors’ Championship heading into the United States Grand Prix at Austin’s Circuit of the Americas.
- Max Verstappen must outscore McLaren by at least eight points — aided by Isack Hadjar — to lift Red Bull above McLaren in the standings after 18 races.
- McLaren team principal Andrea Stella acknowledged Red Bull’s recent performance surge but characterized it as part of a “ping-pong” pattern tied to upgrade cycles, while Lando Norris admitted the MCL40 is “mentally exhausting” to drive.
Red Bull Closes to Within Seven Points of McLaren Ahead of Austin
The United States Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas this weekend presents Red Bull Racing with a genuine opportunity to overtake McLaren in the Formula 1 Constructors’ Championship. After 17 races, McLaren holds third place in the standings on 339 points, with Red Bull sitting just seven points behind on 332. The gap has narrowed dramatically following back-to-back victories by Max Verstappen at the Malaysian Grand Prix in Sepang and the Singapore Grand Prix — the first wins for Red Bull powered by its Ford-backed power unit. Across those two race weekends, Red Bull outscored McLaren 35 to 10 in Malaysia and 34 to 23 in Singapore, transforming what had been a comfortable buffer into a knife-edge battle.
With no Sprint event scheduled at Austin, the maximum points on offer for any team across the weekend is 43. The arithmetic is straightforward: Red Bull must outscore McLaren by a minimum of eight points to move ahead. A swing of exactly seven points would leave the two teams level, with the tie broken by countback of best race results — a measure on which both teams currently sit equal, each holding two grand prix victories this season.
The Scenarios: What Red Bull and McLaren Need at COTA
The range of possible outcomes depends heavily on the performances of both Verstappen and his Red Bull team-mate Isack Hadjar, as well as those of McLaren’s Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri. If Verstappen wins the race and Hadjar fails to score, McLaren can score no more than 17 points for Red Bull to take the lead — a result such as Norris finishing third and Piastri ninth would be enough to hand Red Bull the advantage by a single point. A McLaren driver finishing second with the other car outside the points would leave both teams level. Should Verstappen finish second without a points contribution from Hadjar, McLaren’s ceiling falls to just 10 points — equivalent to a fifth place, with their other car outside the top ten. A Verstappen third place limits McLaren to seven points, such as a seventh and tenth-place combination.
Every point Hadjar adds to Red Bull’s tally directly raises the threshold McLaren can score without surrendering third. For example, a Verstappen victory combined with Hadjar finishing fifth would give Red Bull 35 points, meaning Norris second and Piastri sixth — worth 26 points for McLaren — would still see Red Bull move ahead in the standings. The table below illustrates the key threshold scenarios:
| Red Bull Result | Red Bull Points | Most McLaren Can Score | Example McLaren Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Verstappen 1st | 25 | 17 | Norris 3rd, Piastri 9th |
| Verstappen 1st, Hadjar 5th | 35 | 27 | Norris 2nd, Piastri 6th |
| Verstappen 2nd | 18 | 10 | One car 5th, the other out of the points |
| Verstappen 3rd | 15 | 7 | 7th and 10th |
| Verstappen 4th | 12 | 4 | One car 8th, the other out of the points |
| Verstappen 5th | 10 | 2 | One car 9th, the other out of the points |
| Verstappen or Hadjar 6th | 8 | 0 | Both cars out of the points |
Stella Stays Calm, but Norris Signals MCL40 Struggles
McLaren team principal Andrea Stella has publicly downplayed concern over Red Bull’s resurgence, framing the momentum shift as an expected part of the competitive cycle. “It’s what we call this season: the ping-pong,” Stella said. “I think Verstappen and Red Bull are just taking advantage of the upgrades that they have delivered. But three tenths of a second is a range that you can add with an upgrade.” Despite Stella’s composed public stance, signals from within the McLaren camp suggest the situation is more complex. Norris has described the MCL40 as “mentally exhausting” to drive, and Stella himself has acknowledged that the car’s underlying structural problems will not be resolved until the 2027 chassis arrives — a candid admission that casts some uncertainty over McLaren’s ability to respond quickly to Red Bull’s recent gains.
Verstappen, meanwhile, remains characteristically measured in his expectations. “I don’t want to say now that I will be in the fight in Austin, but yeah, the last few weekends have been great,” he said. “I just take it race by race.” That race-by-race philosophy has paid dividends in recent rounds, with the four-time world champion demonstrating that Red Bull still possesses the pace to challenge at the front of the grid when conditions and upgrades align.
Why This Matters
The battle for third place in the 2025 Constructors’ Championship carries significant financial and reputational implications. Prize money distributed at the end of the season is directly tied to final standings, meaning every position between McLaren and Red Bull in the table has tangible commercial value. Beyond finances, the constructors’ title race shapes the narrative of each team’s development trajectory heading into the sport’s major regulation reset in 2027. McLaren’s admission that the MCL40’s fundamental issues cannot be corrected mid-cycle highlights the high stakes of this transitional period. Red Bull, buoyed by its Ford partnership and recent upgrade momentum, appears to have found a development direction that can yield targeted performance gains — making Austin a critical test of whether that trajectory is sustainable against a McLaren team that, despite its difficulties, still leads by seven hard-fought points.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many points does Red Bull need to overtake McLaren at the 2025 United States Grand Prix?
Red Bull must outscore McLaren by at least eight points at Circuit of the Americas in Austin. A seven-point swing in Red Bull’s favor would leave both teams level on 339 points, with the tie resolved by countback of best race results — an exercise that currently favors neither team, as both have two race victories this season.
Why has the gap between Red Bull and McLaren in the Constructors’ Championship closed so rapidly?
The gap has shrunk primarily because of Max Verstappen’s back-to-back victories at the Malaysian Grand Prix in Sepang and the Singapore Grand Prix, the first wins for Red Bull with its Ford-backed power unit. Red Bull outscored McLaren 35 to 10 across the Malaysia weekend and 34 to 23 in Singapore, turning a comfortable McLaren advantage into a seven-point deficit heading into Austin.
Will McLaren’s car problems be resolved before the end of the 2025 season?
According to McLaren team principal Andrea Stella, the underlying issues with the MCL40 will not be fixed until the 2027 car is developed. Lando Norris has also described the current car as “mentally exhausting” to drive, suggesting that McLaren’s difficulties are structural rather than easily addressed through short-term upgrades within the current season.
