Formula 1’s United States Grand Prix at the Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas, is one of the defining international events on the calendar. The Circuit of the Americas, widely known as COTA, attracts vast crowds, celebrity guests and a substantial television audience, while its layout has remained a firm favorite with the teams since opening year.
Its popularity, however, should not be mistaken for simplicity. COTA is very fast but also extremely bumpy, creating a demanding compromise between different parts of the lap. The opening sector calls for a car that performs well at high speed, while other sections reward low-speed balance. That challenge extends to the tyres, particularly during Qualifying, when drivers must find a narrow operational window before the rubber fades or overheats. The session has been described as a Goldilocks Zone, as fleeting as the morning mist in Travis County.
Engineers, drivers and strategists must therefore balance several risks before the 2026 US Grand Prix: finding a setup that can absorb the bumps, preparing the tyres for an attacking lap, selecting the right compound and deciding whether a one-stop or two-stop race is more likely. The Risk Perspective examines those challenges in partnership with Marsh, Formula 1’s Official Risk Partner and Official Insurance Brokering Partner.
The Engineering Perspective: Xavi Marcos Padros and the COTA Setup Puzzle
Cadillac F1 Team chief race engineer Xavi Marcos Padros has extensive experience on both sides of the Atlantic. He previously worked in Formula 1 for HRT, Williams and Ferrari, and spent a spell as chief race engineer for Richard Childress Racing in NASCAR. He joined Cadillac in 2025 to work on its WEC and IMSA programmes before taking his current position with the Cadillac F1 Team.
Xavi Marcos Padros, Cadillac F1 Team chief race engineer:
“The different sectors at COTA pose some really good questions for set-up, with no obviously right or wrong answers. A lot depends on your car: you might get the best results optimizing around the high-speed corners at the start of the lap, or around the lower speed sections at the end.“The surface is quite rough – but that doesn’t really change our set-up discussions because we’re asking the same questions about how best to maximise what we have, no matter the limitations of any particular circuit.
“We’ll discuss damper settings, general stiffnesses to cope with any bumps, try to maximise ride-height for those, and also, of course, to make sure we are legal at the end of the race with the amount of wear to the plank [the composite board attached to the bottom of the car, which is measured post-race to ensure a minimum ride height].
Advertisement“Our initial set-up for FP1 is based on simulator and simulation data, and then we’ll make adjustments for FP2, based on what we saw in FP1. We’ll have some simulator sessions overnight on Friday to optimize the setup for Saturday, but we’ll also take into account the drivers’ feedback. Some can cope with a stiffer set-up, others need something a little softer. We’ll factor all of these things into our decisions.“Getting a Qualifying lap right is very difficult, because there are risks involved. It is a tough lap for the tyres: if the out-lap prepares them well so they are ready for the first sector then they overheat in the final sector, which is very tough on the left side of the car through the long right-hand corners.
“We can compromise, and perhaps do the first sector with tyres that aren’t quite up to temperature, so they are better in the final part of the lap – but it can be difficult to know which is the best approach. We’ll practice this on Friday, trying different sorts of out-lap, and than plan a cross-car test for our final Qualifying sims in FP3… but it can be a moving target because rubber will go down, grip will increase and the track will evolve.”
The weekend’s engineering process will be iterative. Simulator and simulation work will establish the initial FP1 baseline, Friday’s running will supply corrections for FP2, and overnight simulator sessions and driver feedback will inform the Saturday setup. FP3 is expected to add a cross-car comparison while the circuit continues to change.
Pirelli Strategy at COTA: Why the Stop Count Could Swing
COTA has frequently sat on the boundary between a one-stop and two-stop race. From 2021 through 2023, every edition required two stops. The 2021 race was won with a medium > hard > hard strategy, the 2022 race with medium > hard > medium, and the 2023 race with medium > medium > hard. In 2024, the event dropped to a one-stop medium > hard race.
Pirelli attempted a different approach in 2025 with a compound bridge. Instead of the conventional C2-C3-C4 allocation, it selected C1-C3-C4. The aim was to create a tortoise-and-hare race in which steady one-stoppers on the hard compound battled two-stoppers using the quicker soft compounds over the closing laps.
That plan did not produce the expected split. The 2025 race was entirely a one-stop affair on the softer tyres, with Max Verstappen winning on a medium > soft strategy. For 2026, Pirelli has returned to the conventional C2-C3-C4 allocation.
Temperature remains a central variable. A race at COTA in late October can move in either direction, and the forecast at the time of writing points to hot weather, which generally increases tyre degradation. Even so, two-stop races have been rare in 2026. Strategists must therefore balance the potential cost of an extra stop against the risk that a long first stint pushes a driver beyond the useful life of the tyres.
Colton Herta’s Track Knowledge for Cadillac FP1
Colton Herta is Cadillac’s test and reserve driver and will take part in FP1 this weekend, substituting for Sergio Perez during one of the team’s mandatory rookie sessions. It will be Herta’s fourth FP1 appearance of the season, following outings in Barcelona, Budapest and at Monza.
Although he is only 26, Herta has substantial experience in IndyCar. He has completed seven IndyCar seasons, won nine races and finished second in the 2024 Championship. His first of those victories came at COTA in 2019, when he became the youngest driver ever to win an IndyCar race.
Colton Herta, Cadillac test and reserve driver:
“The right set-up is always a difficult question to answer for this track because the different sections ask quite different things of the car. One of the biggest challenges is how bumpy it is and finding the right balance between ride heights and overall stiffness. You’re trying to get something that works well through the high-speed first sector but still gives you what you need in the longer, slower corners.
“Wind can also change which parts of the track you can maximize, so that adds another factor to think about. With the unusual mix of corners, you’re never going to feel completely comfortable or happy everywhere. It’s about finding a happy medium across the whole lap.“The biggest thing you have to remind yourself is that you’re never going to feel completely comfortable on a lap here. That’s just part of the challenge of driving at COTA, and you have to keep that in mind when you’re judging how the car feels.
“From a set-up point of view, you’re trying to find the best compromise between dealing with the bumps and getting the balance you want around the rest of the lap. You can work towards something that feels as good as possible, but it never feels perfect everywhere. There’s always a bit of give and take, and you have to get comfortable with that compromise.
“For me on Friday, the track knowledge will definitely help. Having raced there before gives me a reference for the layout and the different sections – although it’s been seven years since I was last here, so I’m sure the bumps have changed in that time!
“There are similarities and differences between driving an F1 car and an IndyCar, and some of that familiarity with the circuit will carry over. At the same time, you have to be open to what each car needs from you. I haven’t been able to compare the two cars on the same track yet, so it will be interesting to see where the approach feels similar and where you need to adapt.”
Herta’s previous race at COTA gives him a direct reference for the circuit’s rhythm, bumps and corner balance. His task in FP1 will be to determine how much of that knowledge transfers to Cadillac’s Formula 1 car and where the setup must be adapted to suit the car’s different characteristics.
Turn 19: The COTA Corner That Does the Heavy Lifting
Turns 1 and 12 supply plenty of spectacle at COTA, but Turn 19 is the corner that does much of the race’s heaviest work. The penultimate turn is a quick, open left-hander that rotates through 90 degrees and has a tendency to throw cars wide into the run-off. It is slightly downhill on entry, making its approach difficult to judge, particularly when the tyres are already under pressure at the end of the stadium section.
A driver who has extracted too much from the rubber risks running wide on exit and receiving a track-limits penalty. The preceding three corners cumulatively form what is effectively one long right-hand bend, so cars often arrive at Turn 19 side by side and settle their differences through braking and positioning. The large grandstand beside the corner has made those contests a recurring feature of the United States Grand Prix.
The detection arrangement has also changed. In previous years, the DRS detection point for the main straight sat immediately before the Turn 19 braking zone. For 2026, the Overtake Mode detection point is positioned after the corner. Close following through Turn 19 will therefore be important, although in a different way from the arrangement used in the past.
The Greatest COTA Race: Hurricane Patricia and the 2015 US Grand Prix
The 2015 US Grand Prix stands out among the races held at the Circuit of the Americas because of Hurricane Patricia. The Category 5 hurricane battered Mexico’s western coast with record wind speeds and produced the lowest sea-level pressure recorded in the Western Hemisphere. COTA did not experience the full force of the storm, but Austin was hit by torrential rain and flooding.
FP1 and FP3 were wet, FP2 was cancelled, and Qualifying was washed out. The session was postponed until Sunday morning before being cancelled after Q2. Lewis Hamilton led the Drivers’ Championship, with Mercedes team-mate Nico Rosberg and Ferrari’s Sebastian Vettel still in mathematical contention. Rosberg secured pole position, Hamilton started second, and Vettel took 13th place because of an engine penalty.
The Grand Prix itself featured a wet start and the weekend’s only dry running. The event included two Safety Car periods, two Virtual Safety Car Periods and six changes of the lead. Hamilton took the lead on intermediate tyres and forced Rosberg into the run-off at Turn 1, dropping the Mercedes driver to fifth. A Virtual Safety Car was then deployed to allow marshals to clear debris.
As the track dried, the Red Bulls of Daniel Ricciardo and Dany Kvyat had the pace. Ricciardo passed Kvyat and then moved ahead of both Mercedes cars to take the lead on Lap 15. Hamilton was the first driver in the leading group to pit for slicks, stopping on Lap 18. Ricciardo, Rosberg and Kvyat followed during the next cycle and all emerged ahead of Hamilton.
The order reversed once everyone was on slicks. Rosberg and then Hamilton passed the Red Bulls to take control of the race. A Safety Car on Lap 27 compressed the field, and another Virtual Safety Car followed on Lap 38 when more debris required clearing.
Rosberg’s second stop allowed Hamilton to assume the lead. Hamilton then made his own second stop on Lap 43 under a full Safety Car deployed after a massive shunt for Dany Kvyat; the sequence handed the lead back to Rosberg. The final interruption bunched the field and effectively turned the race into a ten-lap sprint. Rosberg held the lead at the restart but ran wide under pressure a lap later, allowing Hamilton to retake the lead decisively, win the race and secure the Drivers’ Championship.
The Strategic Masterstroke: Max Verstappen’s 2021 Undercut
The 2021 US Grand Prix produced one of Formula 1’s clearest examples of the risk attached to an undercut. Reigning champion Lewis Hamilton and title challenger Max Verstappen arrived at COTA with Verstappen leading the Drivers’ Championship after the previous round in Turkey. Verstappen took pole position, with Hamilton alongside him on the front row.
Hamilton made the better start and took the lead through a closely contested first corner, but the race was expected to be decided by pit stops. High degradation created the conditions for a two-stop race and a powerful undercut, although the move carried an obvious danger: stopping too early required teams to extend their subsequent stints and push the tyres hard from the moment they left the wrapper.
Verstappen stopped on Lap 10, becoming the first of the leading drivers to commit to an undercut. Hamilton waited until Lap 13 and rejoined six seconds behind. Both had planned a medium > hard > hard race, with Hamilton initially closing the gap.
Verstappen stopped again on Lap 29, this time moving before Hamilton could respond and pre-empting another undercut. Hamilton remained in free air until Lap 37, building a substantial tyre delta that gave him a pace advantage for the final stint. He rejoined nine seconds behind Verstappen, but could not close the gap quickly enough. Verstappen had preserved enough life in his hard tyres to keep Hamilton outside DRS range until the penultimate lap, delivering Red Bull a precisely judged victory.
The move also illustrated the risk created by Formula 1’s modern tyre allocation. Each car receives only two sets of hard compound tyres. A team can use one during practice to gather information but enter the race with only one set remaining, or save both sets for the race and effectively begin without prior hard-tyre data.
Mercedes, McLaren, Ferrari, Williams and AlphaTauri chose to save their hard tyres for race day. Red Bull took a different approach, learning about the compound in practice only on Sergio Perez’s car. That decision left Perez with the sacrificial role, but it supplied Red Bull with the information that helped Max Verstappen win the Grand Prix.
Why This Matters for the 2026 US Grand Prix
COTA links several of Formula 1’s most important variables. A setup optimized for the high-speed opening sector still has to survive the circuit’s bumps and slower corners, while a Qualifying tyre preparation that works in the first sector can create overheating problems in the last. The same compromises extend into race strategy, where the cost of an additional stop must be weighed against degradation, traffic and the temperature of the circuit.
For 2026, Pirelli’s return to C2-C3-C4 restores a more conventional allocation after the unsuccessful 2025 compound-bridge experiment. Hot conditions could increase degradation, but the relative rarity of two-stop races in 2026 means the grid may still face a close strategic choice between extending the first stint and protecting the tyres over a shorter race distance.
Turn 19 adds another variable. The new Overtake Mode detection arrangement changes the relationship between the corner and the main straight, potentially giving a following car a different opportunity to capitalize on close positioning. The 2015 race demonstrated how weather can disrupt even the established order, while Verstappen’s 2021 undercut showed how a single, well-timed pit stop can outweigh a larger short-term tyre disadvantage.
For Cadillac, Friday’s FP1 running with Colton Herta and the engineering work led by Xavi Marcos Padros will provide the first on-track evidence as the team approaches those trade-offs. The immediate sequence is clear: establish a working baseline in FP1, refine it in FP2, use overnight simulator work and driver feedback for Saturday, then reassess in FP3 as the rubber layout and grip evolve.
Frequently Asked Questions
What tyres will Pirelli bring to the 2026 US Grand Prix?
Pirelli has returned to its conventional C2-C3-C4 allocation. The C1-C3-C4 compound bridge used in 2025 was intended to pit hard-tyred one-stoppers against soft-tyred two-stoppers, but the race became entirely one-stop and Max Verstappen won on a medium > soft strategy.
Will the 2026 race be a one-stop or two-stop event?
The race remains open on that question. COTA has historically sat between one and two stops, and hot forecast conditions can increase degradation. However, two-stop races have been rare in 2026, so tyre warm-up, expected life, track evolution and race circumstances remain central to the final strategy.
What is Colton Herta’s role at the 2026 US Grand Prix?
Colton Herta is Cadillac’s test and reserve driver and will replace Sergio Perez in FP1 for one of the team’s mandatory rookie sessions. It will be his fourth FP1 appearance of 2026. The 26-year-old is a nine-time IndyCar winner and former IndyCar Championship runner-up whose first victory came at COTA in 2019.
