Key Highlights
- $XRP ETFs recorded no net inflows or outflows on Wednesday after $17.6 million in weekly outflows.
- Stronger-than-expected US inflation has increased concerns that the Federal Reserve could maintain restrictive monetary policy.
- An oversold daily RSI could support a short-term rebound toward $1.20, but $XRP risks falling below $1 if support fails.
Muted institutional demand weighs on XRP recovery
$XRP has continued to underperform as institutional participation remains subdued. Data from SoSoValue showed that XRP ETFs recorded neither inflows nor outflows on Wednesday, suggesting that institutional investors were not increasing their exposure to the funds.
The lack of fresh ETF demand follows $10 million in net outflows on Monday, the largest single-day withdrawal since March 2026. XRP ETFs then recorded more than $7 million in outflows on Tuesday, taking the total weekly outflow to $17.6 million. The withdrawal trend has added pressure to $XRP as the cryptocurrency attempts to stabilize after its recent decline.
Macroeconomic conditions have created another obstacle for XRP. Stronger-than-expected US inflation figures have renewed concerns that price pressures remain elevated, potentially limiting the Federal Reserve’s ability to ease monetary policy. According to CME Group’s FedWatch data cited in the report, traders now see a 15% probability of a 50-basis-point interest rate increase at the December policy meeting.
Although that probability remains relatively low, the emergence of expectations for a larger rate increase highlights growing investor concern about inflation. Risk sentiment across the cryptocurrency market has also weakened, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index falling to 26, firmly within fear territory. Until monetary-policy and regulatory uncertainties begin to ease, $XRP may struggle to establish a sustained recovery.
Oversold RSI creates potential path toward $1.20
Technical indicators suggest that $XRP could stage a short-term recovery after its recent selling pressure. On the daily chart, the cryptocurrency has reached the midpoint of its second bullish fair value gap, or FVG, an area that previously attracted buying interest.
The current FVG is an important support zone for XRP because it could determine whether the cryptocurrency stabilizes or continues its decline below $1. Momentum indicators also point to the possibility of a rebound. The daily Relative Strength Index has entered deeply oversold territory after six consecutive days of selling.
An RSI reading below 30 typically signals oversold conditions, although cryptocurrencies can remain oversold for extended periods during a strong downtrend. If $XRP successfully defends its current support area, buyers could try to drive the token toward the $1.20 resistance level.
A sustained move above $1.20 would indicate improving buying momentum, but the more significant resistance level is near $1.35. XRP would need to reclaim that level over the coming weeks to strengthen the case for a broader bullish reversal.
XRP downside risk remains below the $1 threshold
The risk of a deeper decline remains substantial if $XRP fails to hold its current support zone. The psychological $1 level is an important threshold for traders assessing the cryptocurrency’s near-term direction. A decisive breakdown below that area could accelerate selling pressure and expose XRP to a deeper correction.
The next key support below $1 is located at $0.98. A daily candle close below this level would weaken the technical outlook significantly and expose lower demand zones around $0.80. For now, XRP’s deeply oversold RSI leaves room for a temporary rebound before sellers potentially attempt another move lower.
Why This Matters
XRP’s recovery depends on both technical support and renewed investor demand. The absence of XRP ETF flows on Wednesday, following $17.6 million in weekly outflows, indicates that institutional participation is not yet providing a clear source of buying pressure.
At the same time, elevated inflation concerns and the possibility of tighter Federal Reserve policy can reduce appetite for risk-sensitive assets such as cryptocurrencies. The immediate technical focus is whether XRP can defend its current support area and the $1 threshold. A rebound toward $1.20 would improve short-term sentiment, while a break below $0.98 could expose the cryptocurrency to the $0.80 region.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is XRP struggling to recover?
XRP is facing muted institutional participation, with its ETFs recording no flows on Wednesday after $17.6 million in weekly outflows. Stronger-than-expected US inflation and rising concerns about restrictive Federal Reserve policy have also weighed on market sentiment.
Can XRP rebound toward $1.20?
A rebound toward $1.20 is possible if XRP defends its current fair value gap support area. Its deeply oversold daily RSI may support a temporary recovery, although oversold conditions can persist during a strong downtrend.
What happens if XRP falls below $1?
A decisive break below $1 could intensify selling pressure. The key support below that threshold is $0.98, and a daily close below it could expose XRP to lower demand zones around $0.80.
AI disclosure: AI tools assisted with research and drafting of this piece. An Invezz editor reviewed the facts, sources and wording before publication. Any opinions or analysis are Invezz’s, not those of an automated system.
