- 21Shares has published an XRP price prediction for 2026 with several scenarios.
- Key question for 2026: Will real usage and institutional demand come.
Crypto ETP provider 21Shares has released an XRP price prediction for 2026 in a new research note.
In the base scenario, 21Shares sees XRP at $2.45 by the end of the year (50% probability), in the bull scenario at $2.69 (30%) and in the bear scenario at $1.60 (-16%). 21Shares sees the values as a possible annual high in 2026, depending on how quickly adaptation increases, how the macro environment turns and how liquidity and market structure develop.
Here our own XRP predictions for 2026:
Base case – $2.45 (50%)
Bull case – $2.69 (30%)
Bear case – $1.60 (-16%)Here’s why: https://t.co/yzrZQyAb6z pic.twitter.com/Qikzf9aPso
— 21shares (@21shares) January 28, 2026
How 21Shares comes up with XRP price predictions
21Shares research strategist Matt Mena sees XRP at an “institutional tipping point.” Since the agreement in the SEC proceedings in August 2025, the valuation discount has largely disappeared due to legal uncertainty. In 2026, price determination will have to be measured more closely against reliable fundamental data.
“Price forecasting is one of finance’s most enduring obsessions – this becomes even more appealing in crypto because the market is known for its volatility and rapid changes in sentiment. Although certainty is impossible, meaningful forecasts rely on both data-driven models and qualitative assessments.”
21Shares cites regulatory clarity as the most important lever for 2026. Mena explains that the legal proceedings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission have weighed on the XRP price for years.
“As we enter 2026, XRP is at a critical inflection point: a clear transition from speculative volatility to a valuation based on institutional fundamentals. The August 2025 settlement in the long-running SEC litigation has removed the structural ballast that had capped XRP’s price for years – regardless of its actual utility.”
From 21Shares’ perspective, this will make the market investable again for parts of US institutions, as well as for regulated funds/ETF issuers as well as banks and payment service providers who were previously hesitant due to compliance risks.
At the same time, Mena says: With the legal uncertainty gone, XRP can no longer live on the hype surrounding the court proceedings in 2026. If there is no measurable adoption by banks and financial institutions, a “sell-the-news” risk arises.
Driver two: Spot ETFs in the USA could stabilize demand. These raised more than $1.3 billion in assets in their first month and recorded a “historic series” of ongoing inflows. 21Shares sees this as a signal for more permanent inflows that do not stop immediately with every correction.
Additionally, XRP exchange reserves are at a seven-year low of 1.7 billion XRP. In combination with ETF purchases and a strong community, according to Mena, this is a robust basis for a price increase:
“With stock exchange reserves at a seven-year low of 1.7 billion
Third, 21Shares outlines the XRP Ledger as a potential settlement layer in an increasingly tokenized financial world, from stablecoins to tokenized bank deposits to interoperable settlement layers. The report notes that XRP is designed for fast, low-cost cross-border payments and that the XRP Ledger is already being used by financial institutions and payment providers.
At the same time, DeFi adoption on the XRPL has increased: the total value locked has increased by a factor of almost 100 in two years and recently exceeded the threshold of 100 million US dollars. For the tokenization of real assets, 21Shares refers to the Multi-Purpose Tokens standard, which is intended to allow institutions to map RWAs such as bonds or stocks with metadata and compliance rules directly at the protocol level.
Despite the fundamentally bullish outlook, 21Shares identifies several points that could turn the outlook bearish: Declining ETF inflows could weaken the central, reflexive price mechanism. If there is no significant RWA volume, the settlement thesis collapses, especially as the competition for tokenization increases in 2026. And if RLUSD fails to achieve the institutional traction it hopes for, XRPL would be missing a building block that 21Shares classifies as a high-quality collateral for professional applications.
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