- XRP is losing momentum and is unable to overcome the strong resistance at the $2.21 level.
- Analysts speak of a compact, dangerous market structure.
- Institutional voices see XRP as more dependent on politics and regulation than other altcoins.
The XRP price has moved around $2.21 several times in the past few weeks – and was unable to break out. Analyst Thomas Joos from the news portal “Kryptoszene” describes the situation unusually clearly:
“XRP’s weekly chart doesn’t make a good impression. … The market is becoming more compact and the whole situation is getting worse.”
The formation of a descending triangle indicates increasing selling pressure. At the same time, sales remain low – a classic sign of uncertainty. Warnings of an alleged XRP supply shock are circulating again on social media. EGRAG CRYPTO refers to a long-term “Macro Triangle” and calls it a roadmap.
But “Cryptoscene” puts it into perspective: Exchange inventories are declining, but XRP liquidity can be “mobilized very quickly” – an indication that a real supply shock is not imminent.
XRP responds more to politics than technology
Institutional voices paint a different picture. Bitwise’s Max Shannon told BTC‑Echo:
“XRP has historically acted primarily in response to political and regulatory developments.”
This brings the question of ETF approvals, interest rate decisions and US regulation into greater focus. Jonathan from CoinShares also emphasizes the economic component:
“Falling interest rates, looser financial conditions and a weaker U.S. dollar… are historically fertile ground for rising crypto prices.”
Long-term forecasts up to 26 dollars
The range of current XRP forecasts is extreme: in the short term until the end of January 1.82 dollars according to CoinCodex. In the medium term until the end of 2026, the best case is seen at $4.94 and the worst case at $1.07.
ETF inflows, interest rate cuts and clear regulation are cited as drivers. “CoinSpeaker” is talking about $26 in the long term, around 2030, on the grounds of progressive global RWA tokenization.
XRP ahead of crucial Q1 26
XRP finds itself in a tight, increasingly risky market structure. The next few weeks will decide whether the “wall” at $2.21 will be broken, whether ETF approvals will provide new capital, or whether the market will slide towards $1.80.
In 2026, XRP will definitely remain a politically charged asset, the price of which depends less on technology than on the economy, regulation and institutional behavior – in short – on politics.
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