Key Highlights
- XRP trades near $1.29, slipping below its 50-day moving average and testing critical support between $1.25 and $1.26.
- On-chain data reveals rising exchange reserves and a drop in large whale wallets, signaling potential selling pressure.
- A newly triggered TD Sequential buy signal on the three-day chart suggests potential for a rebound if buyers can defend support levels.
XRP Technical Indicators Signal Weakening Momentum
XRP is navigating a period of technical consolidation and mounting downward pressure as key moving averages highlight faltering momentum. The cryptocurrency is currently trading below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $1.40 and remains only marginally above its 200-day SMA of $1.28. Momentum gauges further reflect cautious market sentiment; the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 40.20, positioning the token below the neutral 50 threshold though still hovering above the oversold boundary of 30. Over the past 30 days, XRP logged positive price movement on just 13 days—or 43% of the period—alongside an annualized volatility reading of 6.01%.
After staging a 71.88% rally from its August low near $0.92 to a peak around $1.60, XRP reversed lower on its three-day chart. It has since pulled back to trade around $1.29, encountering friction as it struggles to maintain recovery momentum and inches closer to major underlying support thresholds.
On-Chain Whale Activity and Exchange Outflows Raise Caution
In an October 27 post on X, cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez drew attention to shifting on-chain dynamics that could influence XRP’s medium-term trajectory. According to Martinez, large holders have been trimming their positions over recent weeks, with wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP decreasing from 351 to 339 addresses. Concurrently, XRP balances held on cryptocurrency exchanges rose by approximately 50 million tokens, bringing total exchange-held reserves to roughly 11.05 billion tokens.
While an influx of tokens onto centralized exchanges often points to mounting sell-side pressure, elevated reserves do not definitively guarantee immediate market liquidation. Nevertheless, the combination of shrinking whale holdings and swelling platform balances presents an obstacle for immediate upward continuation.
TD Sequential Flashes Buy Signal Ahead of Crucial Support Test
Despite the cautionary on-chain metrics, technical indicators present a counter-narrative for traders watching higher timeframes. Martinez noted that the TD Sequential indicator has flashed a buy signal on XRP’s three-day chart. Historical tracking indicates that the last three comparable signals preceded notable price recoveries of 31.26%, 24.38%, and 18.65%.
$XRP FLASHES BUY SIGNAL
The TD Sequential has flashed a buy signal on the $XRP 3-day chart. The last three similar signals triggered rebounds of 31%, 24%, and 18%.
That makes the latest signal worth paying attention to. But everything depends on $1.25.
Hold it, and $XRP could… https://t.co/lbpEjlPaWJ pic.twitter.com/fxVx9zzqof— Ali Charts (@alicharts) October 27, 2026
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Analyst projections indicate that XRP’s immediate market structure hinges heavily on the $1.25 to $1.26 price band. A decisive breach beneath this critical support range could open the door to downward price targets at $1.11, with extended selling potentially exposing the $0.98 level. Conversely, if market participants absorb the current supply and hold the line at $1.25, the TD Sequential buy signal could trigger another cyclical rebound.
Why This Matters
The convergence of a major technical buy signal alongside deteriorating on-chain metrics places XRP at an inflection point. The behavior of large whale tiers holding between 10 million and 100 million tokens serves as an important barometer for broader institutional and high-net-worth sentiment. Defending the $1.25 to $1.26 zone is critical for market bulls to prevent a retest of sub-dollar valuations, while overall price action remains closely tethered to systemic liquidity trends and broader cryptocurrency market direction.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the critical support and resistance levels for XRP?
XRP faces immediate technical overhead at its 50-day SMA of $1.40. On the downside, analyst Ali Martinez identifies $1.25 to $1.26 as the pivotal support zone. A breakdown below this threshold risks declines toward $1.11 and $0.98.
What does the TD Sequential buy signal indicate for XRP?
The TD Sequential buy signal on the three-day chart suggests that current selling momentum may be exhausted, historically leading to upside rebounds of 31.26%, 24.38%, and 18.65% in the prior three instances, contingent on the $1.25 support level holding.
Why are rising exchange balances a concern?
Over several weeks, XRP balances on exchanges increased by approximately 50 million tokens to 11.05 billion. While higher exchange balances do not ensure that tokens will be sold immediately, they typically reflect higher available supply that could increase market volatility and selling pressure.
