Key Highlights:
- Arthur Hayes has rotated positions across Hyperliquid ($HYPE), Ethereum ($ETH), and Zcash ($ZEC), advocating a barbell strategy that pairs scarce monetary assets with revenue-generating crypto protocols.
- Hyperliquid generated approximately $429 million in revenue between January 1 and September 15, directing roughly 99% of fees to token buybacks, though Hayes warns rising competition and relative valuation favor $ETH.
- Technical indicators reveal $HYPE testing its critical 21-week moving average at $72.85, $ETH compressing between long-term moving averages at $2,407.69, and $ZEC defending dynamic support at $1,047.48.
Crypto investor and Maelstrom fund manager Arthur Hayes has adjusted his strategic portfolio thesis, emphasizing relative valuation across decentralized perpetual exchanges, core layer-1 networks, and privacy-focused assets. Earlier in the year, Hayes projected that surging open interest in HIP-3 markets could propel Hyperliquid ($HYPE) to $150. By late May, he championed $HYPE alongside Near ($NEAR) and Zcash ($ZEC), citing Hyperliquid’s transparent cash flows and integration with traditional asset markets. However, subsequent portfolio shifts on June 4 saw Hayes divest his $HYPE and $NEAR positions over macroeconomic headwinds, higher energy prices, and liquidity concerns tied to major artificial intelligence listings. The following day, he liquidated his $ZEC holdings, pointing to cryptographic verification concerns stemming from a vulnerability in the Zcash Orchard pool.
The swift trading reversals attracted scrutiny across the crypto community, with on-chain investigator ZachXBT alleging that Hayes used his social followings as exit liquidity. Addressing the trades in August, Hayes revealed that Maelstrom entered $HYPE in the low $30 range before selling around $75. At the same time, he forecast that Ethereum ($ETH) possessed the fundamental setup to surge three to five times in a compressed timeframe. By October, Hayes framed his market approach around a classic barbell allocation: pairing monetary, scarce assets like Bitcoin ($BTC), $ETH, and $ZEC with high-performing decentralized protocols that deliver real yield and fee distribution.
Relative Valuation: The Fundamental Divergence Between $HYPE and $ETH
Central to Hayes’ current thesis is the divergence in valuation metrics between established layer-1 settlement layers and fast-growing decentralized derivatives platforms. Hyperliquid accrued approximately $429 million in revenue from January 1 through September 15. The network directs about 99% of all protocol-generated fees toward open-market repurchases of $HYPE, creating a direct mechanical link between user trading activity and token demand. Because market participants have broadly priced in this buyback dynamic, Hayes contends that much of Hyperliquid’s fundamental performance is already reflected in the token’s market price. This leaves the asset vulnerable to aggressive market-share competition from alternative perpetual exchanges, which directly reduces protocol fees and shrinks the buyback engine.
In contrast, Hayes views Ethereum as deeply undervalued relative to its broader structural footprint. While remaining the dominant settlement base for the global decentralized finance ecosystem, $ETH has substantially lagged smaller tokens over the past year and remains approximately 51% below its peak recorded in August 2025. Meanwhile, his renewed perspective on Zcash shifts toward privacy fundamentals, premised on the expectation that financial anonymity will command higher premiums as corporate tech firms, artificial intelligence systems, and state regulators tighten transactional monitoring across the digital economy.
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Technical Indicators Across $HYPE, $ETH, and $ZEC
Hyperliquid ($HYPE) Tests Long-Term Moving Average
On the weekly chart, $HYPE trades along its 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $72.85, a technical metric that has anchored its entire 2026 expansion. $HYPE reclaimed this threshold in January and defended it consistently, matching the pattern of a breakout bounce seen in July. Alongside the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $68.38, the area between $68.40 and $72.90 represents critical support. Despite marking higher structural price peaks in September compared to June, momentum has shown clear divergence: the relative strength index (RSI) reached only around 70 at recent records compared to 83 in late May, cooling to a current reading of 56.2. A confirmed breakdown beneath $68.40 risks a decline toward $59.24 and the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $50–$51, whereas reclaiming $85–$88 re-targets $97.99 and $119.07.
Ethereum ($ETH) Compresses Below Key Moving Averages
Ethereum trades at $2,407.69, tightly bounded by its 50-week EMA at $2,419.68 and its 200-week EMA at $2,462.74. Upward momentum paused in September at $2,749, matching both the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and the technical projection of its double bottom pattern formed near $1,550–$1,600 during June and July. Trading volumes during the consolidation phase remain lower than the August breakout volume, pointing to localized profit-taking rather than broad liquidation. A weekly settlement above $2,463 would confirm structural support, targeting resistance levels at $2,749 and $3,171, while repeated failures below the 50-week average risk pulling the asset toward its $2,149 baseline.
Zcash ($ZEC) Consolidates Above Support Floor
Zcash posted a 9.25% advance this week to reach $1,235.40, marking four consecutive weeks of holding lows above the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $1,047.48. Overhead selling pressure persists near the 0.236 retracement level at $1,289.17, marked by an upper wick extending to $1,368. With $ZEC hovering 90% above its 50-week EMA, weekly RSI registered 78 during the September peak compared to 95 in November 2025, signaling diminishing upside momentum. A decisive close above $1,289 clears the path toward the $1,680 record high, whereas losing $1,047 opens technical vulnerability toward $852 and the deeper support band at $647–$657.
Why This Matters
The strategic shifts highlighted by Arthur Hayes underscore a broader debate in digital asset portfolio construction: whether to allocate capital toward protocol businesses with direct fee-generation mechanisms or undervalued layer-1 infrastructure assets. For Hyperliquid, the dependency on fee-driven buybacks means that its token value is exceptionally sensitive to decentralized perpetual exchange market share and derivative trading volumes. At the same time, Hayes’ cyclical rotation back into Ethereum and Zcash tests whether high-liquidity monetary layers can outperform fee-accrual protocols during late-stage market cycles. Market observers and algorithmic trackers continue to monitor on-chain wallets associated with Hayes and Maelstrom, as real-time liquidity movements often signal broader institutional positioning ahead of official public commentary.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Arthur Hayes sell his $HYPE and $ZEC positions earlier this year?
Hayes executed sales of his $HYPE and $NEAR allocations on June 4 due to rising energy costs, global macroeconomic headwinds, and risks that high-profile AI listings would siphon crypto market liquidity. On June 5, he exited his $ZEC position over concerns regarding a vulnerability in Zcash’s Orchard pool, which prevented cryptographic verification that additional tokens had not been created.
How does Hyperliquid’s business model influence the value of $HYPE?
Hyperliquid directs approximately 99% of its total platform fees directly toward purchasing $HYPE on open markets, tying price appreciation closely to trading volumes. While this mechanism resulted in significant buying support following roughly $429 million in platform revenue through mid-September, it leaves the asset vulnerable if rival decentralized exchanges capture market share and dilute protocol earnings.
What key technical levels determine the near-term trends for $HYPE and $ETH?
For $HYPE, holding the support band between the 21-week EMA at $72.85 and the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $68.38 is critical to prevent a drop toward $50–$51. For Ethereum, price action remains compressed between its 50-week EMA ($2,419.68) and 200-week EMA ($2,462.74); breaking through the upper EMA is required to initiate a rally toward $2,749 and $3,171.
