- This week only brings three partial reports on the US economy. But there is the important labor market report that will be published on Friday.
- The other data – consumer prices, producer prices and the price index of personal consumption expenditure will only follow in the coming weeks.
The US labor market report is considered a key indicator for assessing the US Federal Reserve’s future interest rate policy. In the week of March 2nd to 8th the publication The following US economic data is expected:
- March 5th: Report on import and export prices;
- March 5th: Preliminary report on productivity and unit labor costs in the fourth quarter of 2025;
- March 6th: Report on the US labor market, in particular unemployment figures excluding agriculture, which will be covered in a separate report.
Strong employment numbers would indicate a robust economy, making a rate cut more likely. This typically leads to rising yields and a firmer dollar.
For crypto assets, this usually means pressure on prices as capital is reallocated into safer investments. European trading venues feel this directly because demand for Bitcoin, Ether and other altcoins falls in such phases.
Rising unemployment, on the other hand, is associated with the expectation of interest rate cuts. This leads to falling yields and a weaker dollar. In this environment, risk appetite increases, which supports digital assets in the US and EU alike. Altcoins in particular benefit in such phases, as investors increasingly switch to smaller projects.
Consequences for market and trade in the EU
Since the EU is not releasing its own publications this week, the US data situation is determining what happens. There are regularly significant swings in the order books of European trading venues around the publication of the US labor market report.
Spreads are widening as market makers adjust their models. At the same time, derivatives sales are increasing as many investors hedge positions or take advantage of short-term movements.
Another factor is the development of dollar stablecoins. In phases of strong US economic activity, demand for them increases, which influences liquidity on EU trading venues. A weak US economy, on the other hand, leads to greater use of euro-based digital assets because the dollar becomes less attractive.
outlook
The upcoming releases on US consumer prices, producer prices and the personal consumption expenditure price index will be much more meaningful than just the labor market data.
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