- An account on the crypto forecasting platform Polymarket turned a stake of around $32,000 into a profit of over $436,000 within a few days.
- The customer was counting on the early deposition or capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by the USA.
The bets were placed at a time when the market valued the probability of such an event at only around six percent. Just a few hours later, the US government confirmed the arrest of Maduro – and the betting winnings were paid out immediately. The exceptionally precise timing has now sparked a debate that extends far beyond the crypto scene.
Single-use account for a single purpose
According to several media reports, the Polymarket account in question was only opened on January 2nd. It is striking that the customer relied exclusively on aggression scenarios against Venezuela: a US invasion, the presence of American troops in the country, the removal of Maduro and even the activation of the “War Powers Act”, the restriction of war powers by President Trump.
The War Powers Act is a 1973 US federal law that limits the US president’s war powers. It was passed in response to the Vietnam War to ensure that Congress regained a stronger role in military decisions.
Blockchain analysts identified additional wallets that had placed similar bets shortly before the military operation. This has raised the question of whether the war speculator simply had an exceptional sense of the emerging developments, or whether he had insider information that was not available to the public.
Political explosiveness and open questions
There is currently no official evidence of an information leak, but the combination of exactly on-time account opening, precisely formulated bets and exact timing of the bets still raises eyebrows.
The discussion about possible insider knowledge has now reached political dimensions. According to Decrypt, a US representative is working on a bill that would explicitly ban the use of confidential government information on prediction markets.
At the same time, industry representatives argue that forecast markets function fundamentally differently than traditional financial markets and that insider knowledge can contribute to efficiency there.
The first bets are now circulating as to whether and when Greenland will become the 51st US state.
The first bets are now circulating as to whether and when Greenland will become the 51st US state.
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