Shiba Inu (SHIB) has erased more than 20% of its late-August gains, but the pullback could create an accumulation opportunity if historical market patterns repeat.
On a broader timeframe, the memecoin has been gradually recovering lost ground in the second half of 2026, as indicated by its rising channel in purple. However, attempts to hold above the key 200-day moving average (MA) at $0.0000069 have failed, reinforcing that a bullish breakout remains elusive.
Still, the channel structure could remain intact if the broader cryptocurrency market extends its upward momentum.
Source: $SHIB/USDT, TradingView
Could September favor Shiba Inu again?
Beneath the short-term uncertainty and gradual price action, several bullish signals are emerging for Shiba Inu.
Cyclical patterns, particularly during the early stages of a bull market, have historically favored Shiba Inu and memecoins more broadly. In 2023, for example, SHIB consolidated at $0.00000678 before surging 70% to $0.000011 by mid-December. During the second leg of the 2024 rally, $SHIB rose 165% to nearly 0.00003.
During those periods, the broader memecoin market gained 78% and 713%, respectively. So far, the broader memecoin index tracked by VanEck’s MarketVector has climbed 9% from its recent lows. If historical patterns hold and memecoin activity accelerates, $SHIB could follow the same trend.
Source: MarketVector
SHIB accumulation remains steady
Spot-market demand for the memecoin has remained stable despite the broader sell-off in early 2026. This is reflected in the increase, followed by the recent stabilization, of SHIB supply held outside exchanges.
The data suggests that $SHIB experienced significant accumulation during the crypto winter.
Source: Santiment
A similar ‘calm before a storm’ appeared before Shiba Inu’s explosive run from September to November 2024. However, $SHIB’s disinflation and token-burn program slowed considerably in late August and early September.
Nearly 100M $SHIB tokens were incinerated in early August. Since then, the burn rate has fallen to 1.8M tokens, representing a 98% decline. This contrasts sharply with the 350% increase in $SHIB’s burn rate recorded during July.
Source: Shiba burn tracker
Key levels for a potential SHIB rally
Overall, September could become a strong accumulation period if the market repeats the pattern seen before previous bull runs. However, the 98% decline in the burn rate needs to reverse to strengthen bullish sentiment heading into the fourth quarter.
An extended rally could receive confirmation if $SHIB reclaims $0.000007. That level also corresponds with the 50-week moving average and has acted as a key barrier to rallies throughout 2026.
- $SHIB has erased more than 20% of its August gains, but September could provide a springboard for a fourth-quarter rally if history repeats.
- The $SHIB burn rate has fallen 98%, from 100M tokens to just 1.8M over the past 30 days.
