Russia’s regulated cryptocurrency market could handle between 3.5 trillion and 4 trillion rubles in trading volume during its first year, according to an Aug. 29 forecast from SberCIB Investment Research.
The upper end of the estimate equals approximately $46.43 billion at the exchange rate used by TASS. Sberbank Deputy Chairman Anatoly Popov said annual trading volume could reach about 7.5 trillion rubles, or $87.06 billion, by 2029.
The projection is a forecast, not a guaranteed minimum. Contrary to some secondary reports, TASS said first-year volume was “not expected to exceed” 4 trillion rubles. The 3.5 trillion-to-4 trillion-ruble range should therefore be treated as SberCIB’s estimate rather than a confirmed trading target.
Russia’s crypto market forecast assumes limited migration
Popov said Russian cryptocurrency transactions currently total roughly 50 billion rubles per day. Based on Russian Finance Ministry data he cited, that would equal approximately 18 trillion rubles over a full year.
SberCIB expects about 20% of this activity to shift to regulated exchanges during the first year. The bank forecasts organized trading of between 4.75 trillion and 5.25 trillion rubles by 2028, followed by approximately 7.5 trillion rubles in 2029.
The estimates depend on investor demand, exchange registrations and the final implementing rules. Sberbank has not presented the figures as official forecasts from Russia’s Finance Ministry or the Bank of Russia.
Popov expects a substantial share of cryptocurrency activity to remain with exchange services operating outside organized markets. As a result, the forecast covers only a minority of Russia’s broader crypto transaction volume.
Retail investors face testing and annual purchase limits
Russia’s regulated cryptocurrency framework is scheduled to take effect on Sept. 1, 2026. The Bank of Russia said qualified and non-qualified investors will be able to conduct crypto transactions through approved intermediaries.
Non-qualified investors must pass a knowledge test before purchasing eligible cryptocurrencies. They will be limited to purchases of no more than 300,000 rubles, approximately $3,800, each year through every intermediary.
Qualified investors must also complete testing. However, the central bank said they could access any cryptocurrency without the same monetary ceiling. The exact products available will depend on intermediary services and supporting regulations.
The framework covers brokers, asset managers, exchanges and digital depositories. Cryptocurrency remains prohibited as a payment method for ordinary goods and services inside Russia.
Bitcoin, Ether and $USDT lead the proposed asset list
The Bank of Russia has proposed Bitcoin, Ether and Tether’s $USDT for organized trading. The regulator selected the assets using criteria related to market capitalization, trading volume and overseas price history.
The consultation did not mean that every intermediary would immediately offer all three assets. The central bank’s proposed BTC, ETH and $USDT list remained subject to final regulatory action after the consultation period closed on Aug. 24.
Other cryptocurrencies could remain unavailable to ordinary investors through regulated venues unless they meet the central bank’s standards. Qualified investors are expected to receive broader access after completing the required testing.
The restricted retail list could leave some demand outside the licensed system, a possibility reflected in SberCIB’s conservative adoption assumptions.
Licensing deadlines will shape the market’s first year
Existing crypto exchange providers can continue operating during a transition period but must complete registration by July 1, 2027. This delay means the regulated market will not operate at full capacity immediately after the law takes effect.
The central bank has also proposed rules covering exchanges, digital depositories, client accounts and asset records. The Bank of Russia will maintain official registers for approved market participants.
Sberbank separately plans to launch cryptocurrency trading, custody and digital-depository infrastructure by Dec. 1, 2026. According to earlier reporting, the bank has not finalized customer eligibility, supported assets, fees or withdrawal terms.
The first measurable results will depend on how many intermediaries enter the regulated system and how much activity moves away from unregistered services. No verified market movement in Bitcoin, Ether or $USDT was directly attributed to SberCIB’s forecast.
