- According to current onchain data, the Bitcoin price is showing an undervaluation that was last observed in March 2023, when Bitcoin was trading at around $20,000.
- The MVRV indicator – Market Value to Realized Value – measures the relationship between market value and realizable value. It is currently at 1.13, which means there is a chance of bottoming out.
The MVRV value is a central indicator for evaluating the Bitcoin network. Values close to one indicate that the market price is close to the average purchase price of all coins. In the past, such phases often marked turning points for holding stocks at a loss. The current decline to 1.13 is the lowest level since March 2023 and signals a significant slowdown in the market after the sharp rises of recent months.
Different cycle progression
However, analysts note that the current cycle is structurally different from previous bull markets. While Bitcoin reached MVRV values of over 4 in previous peak phases, the highest value in the most recent cycle was only 2.28.
This suggests that the market has not become extremely overvalued despite new all-time highs. This peculiarity complicates classic pattern recognition and makes historical comparisons less reliable.
Onchain data points to trend reversal
In addition to the MVRV indicator, the MVRV Z score also shows a significant cooling. This indicator measures how much the current valuation deviates from the long-term average. According to current analyses, the Z‑Score is at a level that is even lower than in the bottom phases of 2015, -18, -20 and -22. In the past, such extreme values have often been associated with accumulation phases and subsequent trend changes.
Parallel to March 23 with a significantly higher price
The comparison with March 2023 results from the similar on-chain structure, not from the absolute price value. At that time, Bitcoin was trading at around $20,000 after the market had just digested the FTX crash.
Today the price is significantly higher, but the valuations are similar. This suggests that, despite high nominal prices, the market is moving into a phase in which long-term investors are investing more and speculators are giving up.
It could be the classic dip.
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