- Galaxy sees an increased risk of a further Bitcoin price decline in the next few weeks/months following the sell-off and weak on-chain signals.
- According to Galaxy, target zones are $70,000 as well as the realized price at around $56,000 and the 200-week line at $58,000.
A new analysis from Galaxy Digital sees Bitcoin vulnerable to further losses after the weekend’s sharp sell-off. According to the renowned American financial services firm, BTC price could fall towards the 200-week moving average. This is currently close to $58,000.
Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research bei Galaxy, justified the scenario with on-chain data, weak reactions on key brands, macroeconomic uncertainty and a lack of short-term catalysts.
Bitcoin is slipping into the bear market
Thorn refers to the crash of the last few days. Between Thursday, January 29th and Monday, February 2nd, Bitcoin fell by more than 16%; On Saturday alone the decline was 10%. The price slide triggered “one of the largest liquidation events in history”: over $2 billion in longs were liquidated via futures trading venues.
On Coinbase, BTC/USD fell as low as $75,644 on Saturday. This meant that the price temporarily slipped up to 10% below the average cost base of US spot ETFs of around $84,000. Thorn also gives another reason why the current price is critical: Strategy’s average cost basis (MSTR) is $76,037.
At the time of the report, Bitcoin was trading around 38% below its October 6, 2025 all-time high of $126,296. According to Thorn, this puts BTC at a level that investors last saw in early 2024, and the crash does not bode well historically:
“With the exception of 2017, Bitcoin has never experienced a 40% decline from its all-time high that was not extended to 50% or more within three months,” he writes. “A 50% decline from the all-time high would put Bitcoin in the area of around $63,000 today.”
Looking at the on-chain data, Galaxy sees a structure that signals few “natural” demand zones in the short term. Thorn describes “a significant gap in on-chain ownership between $82,000 and $70,000.” According to Thorn, this increases the likelihood of Bitcoin falling lower to test demand in this area.
At the same time, according to Galaxy, 46% of the Bitcoin supply is now “underwater”, i.e. moved at prices that are above current levels. In addition, the January closing price confirmed four red monthly candles in a row – “for the first time since 2018”.
Galaxy is paying particular attention to US spot Bitcoin ETF holders. By the end of January, they had collected a cumulative net inflow of $54 billion. According to Galaxy, it peaked at $62.2 billion in early October 2025 and has declined 12.4% since then.
Striking: The past two weeks were the second and third worst weeks in ETF history – with combined outflows of $2.8 billion. Thorn still sees the fact that many ETF holders remained “incredibly resilient” despite a price decline of almost 40% from the high as a stabilizing factor for the medium-term market.
At the same time, Galaxy sees little bullish news on the horizon that could tip market sentiment again in the short term. Bitcoin has massively underperformed gold and silver since October 10, 2025, although macro and geopolitical uncertainty as well as concerns about national debt have directed capital into “commodities and commodity money”.
As a result, Thorn outlines a rather bearish outlook for the next few weeks. The Galaxy analyst sees good long-term entry opportunities below $60,000:
“The downward trend is much more firmly established – the upward momentum in January stopped below 100,000; then there was a clean break of 80,000 and a new, lower low at the weekend. When Bitcoin moves towards the 200-week average [ca. $58,000] oder Realized Price [ca. $56,000] “As in the past, these zones should represent strong entry areas for long-term investors.”
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