- Bitcoins course direction depends on the US inflation and labor market data, whereby the inflation rate should be decisive for central bank interest.
- More applications for unemployment support and high inflation would also keep interest rates high, which would strengthen the dollar, but would weaken the cryptoma market.
Bitcoin’s ability to stay above the $ 100,000 mark could be put to the test this week because investors adapted to a number of important US economic data. With inflation, the strength of the labor market and the consumer confidence, all of which are on the test, the market participants look at the macroindic agents to determine whether the Federal Reserve could adapt their current monetary policy course.
Persistent trade voltages and fiscal political decisions of the Trump administration continue to ensure additional complexity and make the short-term development of Bitcoin increasingly susceptible to broader economic developments.
Here is an outlook for this week’s news events
We are starting with a no-news Monday followed by CPI on Tuesday, which is the main focus for the week.
Always know when red folder news happens and avoid it if you’re a beginner. Once the dust settles, you can hunt for your… pic.twitter.com/I1O1aGNXZi
– bulgrooooooold (@bullproftraft) May 11, 2025
The consumer price inflation For April, which will be released on Tuesday, has the greatest influence. The forecasts indicate an increase of 2.3 % in the year, a slight decline compared to 2.4 % of March.
If the actual numbers match this forecast, or even below it, this would increase the pressure on the Federal Reserve, to consider interest reductions in the coming months. An interest rate reduction would weaken the dollar, but Bitcoin and other risk systems support.
However, greater than expected inflation rates indicate that the recent trading tariffs and the shortage of offer have increased inflation pressure. Such a scenario will probably increase the reasons for long, high interest rates. In view of the new attitude of the Fed to maintain interest rates and at the same time observing economic volatility, a high VPI value could support your conservative attitude.
Applications for unemployment support reflect stability of the labor market
The initial applications for unemployment support are still an important signal for the situation on the US labor market. The latest report for the week ended on May 3 showed a decline to 228,000 applications, which is below the 241,000 of the previous week and below the forecasts. This indicates a resistant job market with minimal signs of stress.
No signs of labor market stress in the last week of April.
Jobless claims—both initial and continuing—are steady, right in line with the past 3 years. pic.twitter.com/zI3w20xH8l
— The Bitcoin Layer (@TheBitcoinLayer) May 9, 2025
If the request for the request for the week that ends on May 10th, the data could indicate that the labor market is in good condition despite the shortage of credit sources. A strong labor market usually supports consumer expenses, but also reduces motivation for the Fed to further reduce interest rates, which puts pressure on Bitcoin and other speculative instruments.
Producer price inflation and consumer mood create additional clarity
On Wednesday, investors will evaluate the producer price index (PPI), which records the changes in wholesale prices. In March, the PPI decreased by 0.4 % compared to the previous month and thus contradicted the forecasts for an increase. Another weak result could be the declining inflation along the supply chain, which would confirm the argument for a later relaxation of monetary policy.
Also on Thursday, the University of Michigan’s consumer mood index will show how the Americans assess the condition of the economy. The value for April fell to 52.2 and thus a five-year low, because concerns about inflation and trade policy are examined. Another decline could mean that households consume less and have risky systems such as cryptocurrencies less support.
Since these key indicators develop, retailers will use them to determine whether Bitcoin can still cover the same price range without the renewed volatility. The data will either confirm confidence in the risk markets or dialectically lead to defensive positioning.
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