A former White House teleprompter operator has agreed to pay $172,000 to settle allegations that he used advance knowledge of presidential speeches to trade prediction-market contracts linked to words President Donald Trump would say.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission said Gabriel Perez misappropriated confidential government information to trade “presidential mention market” contracts. These event contracts pay out based on whether a president uses specific words or phrases during a speech.
Because his role gave him access to presidential speeches before they were delivered, Perez allegedly placed trades on outcomes he already knew, according to the CFTC. Between December 2025 and February 2026, he generated more than $107,500 in profits, the agency said.
Under the settlement, Perez must disgorge $107,539.02 in gains, pay a $65,000 civil penalty, accept a three-year trading ban and cease further violations of the Commodity Exchange Act.
The CFTC said the penalty was substantially reduced under a new cooperation policy because of what it described as Perez’s “exemplary assistance” with the investigation. The regulator also credited exchange operator Kalshi with helping advance the case.
Prediction markets face growing insider-trading scrutiny
The enforcement action is one of the clearest examples yet of the insider-trading risks facing prediction markets as they grow in popularity. These platforms allow users to wager real money on real-world outcomes, including elections, sports and increasingly specific details of political speeches.
The risks are not hypothetical. Earlier this year, a U.S. soldier was charged over alleged Polymarket trading that produced more than $400,000 in illicit gains tied to the military operation that ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro. Separately, a MrBeast video editor was fired in March amid a Kalshi insider-trading investigation.
Kalshi has also been working through a backlog of suspicious-activity reviews and has introduced additional safeguards amid increasing scrutiny over whether insiders are manipulating its markets.
The case comes as prediction markets move further into the mainstream, generating billions of dollars in trading volume and attracting greater regulatory attention. It also signals that the CFTC considers event contracts to fall squarely within its authority as swaps subject to insider-trading rules.
