- 94% of economists surveyed by Reuters between October 16–20 expect the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady in October, keeping the benchmark rate in the 3.75–4.00% range.
- All 100 economists polled unanimously anticipate a 25 basis point rate hike at the Fed’s December meeting, with roughly 60% forecasting a peak policy rate in the 4.00–4.25% range.
- Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, elevated energy costs, and new import tariffs are identified as the primary drivers reinforcing tightening expectations heading into year-end.
Reuters Poll: Fed Expected to Pause in October as Economists Eye December Rate Hike
A Reuters survey of economists conducted between October 16 and 20 has delivered a near-unanimous verdict: the Federal Reserve is overwhelmingly expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming October meeting. A sweeping 94% of respondents predicted the Fed would hold its benchmark rate within the current 3.75–4.00% range, reflecting a broad consensus that policymakers are inclined toward caution despite ongoing inflationary pressures in the United States economy.
Economists surveyed noted that Fed officials have consistently signaled a preference for a measured, data-dependent approach to monetary policy tightening. While the prospect of another rate increase remains firmly on the table given still-elevated price levels, the October meeting is widely seen as an opportunity for the central bank to pause, reassess incoming economic data, and calibrate its strategy before the final policy decision of the year.
Universal Consensus Points to a December Rate Increase
The most definitive finding of the Reuters poll was the absolute unanimity among respondents regarding December: all 100 economists surveyed forecast a 25 basis point interest rate increase at the Fed’s final meeting of the year. This consensus signals that markets and professional forecasters alike view October’s expected pause not as a pivot away from tightening, but rather as a deliberate delay before further action.
Approximately 60% of the economists polled believe the policy interest rate will peak in the 4.00–4.25% range. However, a significant minority holds a more aggressive outlook — 38 of the 92 economists who answered the relevant question predict at least two additional interest rate hikes beyond December, suggesting that a subset of analysts sees the tightening cycle extending further into the coming year depending on how economic conditions evolve.
Alex Pelle, Chief US Economist at Mizuho Bank, offered a pointed assessment of the Fed’s current stance when speaking to Reuters. Pelle argued that the economy remains robust and that price pressures are intensifying, stating directly that “the Fed’s decision not to raise interest rates in October was a wrong decision.” His remarks underscore the tension some economists feel between the Fed’s cautious posture and what they view as the persistent urgency of inflation control.
Inflation and Energy Prices Remain Central to the Fed’s Policy Calculus
Underlying the broad expectation of a December hike is the stubborn persistence of US inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Economists surveyed by Reuters identified this as a primary factor sustaining the case for continued monetary tightening. Compounding the inflation dynamic, elevated energy costs and newly imposed tariffs on imports are adding further upward pressure on consumer prices, potentially extending the period during which the Fed feels compelled to maintain a restrictive stance.
Economists broadly agree that the trajectory of future rate decisions will be shaped by incoming economic data and the Fed’s own evolving assessments. The persistence of inflation and the pace of economic growth will be particularly critical variables. Should price pressures prove more entrenched than expected, the central bank may find itself compelled to pursue an even tighter monetary policy path beyond what is currently priced into consensus forecasts.
Implications for Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Markets
The firming expectation of a December rate hike is being closely monitored by participants in cryptocurrency markets, where risk appetite tends to be sensitive to shifts in US monetary policy. A sustained high-interest-rate environment typically supports a stronger US dollar and elevated bond yields — conditions that have historically weighed on Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market by reducing the relative attractiveness of speculative, non-yielding assets.
Beyond the rate decision itself, forward guidance and public statements from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh are expected to carry significant market-moving weight. Investors and analysts are therefore tracking not only the interest rate outcome expected to be announced on October 28th, but also the accompanying press conference, which may offer critical signals about the Fed’s intentions for December and the pace of any subsequent policy adjustments.
*This is not investment advice.
Why This Matters
The Reuters poll results carry significant weight because they represent a rare and unusually strong convergence of professional economic opinion. The fact that not a single economist among 100 surveyed dissented from the December hike forecast reflects how deeply embedded tightening expectations have become, even as the Fed chooses to pause in October. For businesses, consumers, and investors, the prospect of a higher peak policy rate — potentially in the 4.00–4.25% range or beyond — means that borrowing costs are likely to remain elevated well into the foreseeable future. The Fed’s October 28th announcement and press conference will serve as a pivotal event, not merely for confirming the pause but for framing the central bank’s longer-term intentions at a moment when inflation, energy costs, and tariff-driven price pressures all remain unresolved.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the Federal Reserve expected to keep rates unchanged in October?
According to the Reuters poll of economists conducted October 16–20, 94% of respondents believe Fed officials are taking a cautious and gradual approach to monetary policy. Despite continued inflationary pressures, the Fed is expected to hold the benchmark rate in the 3.75–4.00% range in October while awaiting further economic data before acting again at its December meeting.
What do economists predict for the Fed’s December meeting?
All 100 economists surveyed in the Reuters poll unanimously expect a 25 basis point interest rate increase at the Fed’s December meeting. Around 60% forecast that the policy rate will peak in the 4.00–4.25% range, while 38 of 92 respondents anticipate at least two additional hikes, reflecting a more aggressive minority view on the tightening path.
How could the Fed’s rate decisions impact Bitcoin and crypto markets?
A prolonged high-interest-rate environment tends to strengthen the US dollar and push bond yields higher, which typically places downward pressure on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies by reducing investor risk appetite. Beyond the rate decision itself, statements from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh at the October 28th press conference are expected to be a decisive factor in shaping near-term market sentiment across crypto and broader financial markets.
