CFTC Opens Three Insider Trading Investigations Into Polymarket
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has launched at least three previously unreported investigations into suspected insider trading on the prediction market platform Polymarket, according to a report from WIRED. The probes target event contracts tied to presidential pardons issued by former President Joe Biden, Iran-related geopolitical outcomes, and Google’s 2025 Year in Search rankings.
First Probe Follows NPR Report on Pardon Markets
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig approved the first investigation in early May. The action followed an NPR report detailing a trader who earned more than $300,000 from pardon-related markets after correctly predicting several preemptive pardons.
Second Investigation Targets Iran Contracts
A second investigation was approved at the end of May. This probe centers on Iran-related contracts and was prompted by a 60 Minutes report on accounts that reportedly earned $2.4 million with a 98% win rate.
Third Probe Examines Google Search Rankings
In July, the CFTC approved a third investigation into suspected insider trading involving Google’s 2025 Year in Search ranking. An agency official said the probe would examine additional individuals and noted that the Southern District of New York was conducting a parallel investigation.
CFTC enforcement officials clarified that this investigation is separate from an existing case against former Google engineer Michele Spagnuolo, who allegedly made more than $1.2 million trading Polymarket contracts based on confidential information about Google’s 2025 Year in Search rankings.
Polymarket’s U.S. Return Under CFTC Oversight
Polymarket has been working to rebuild its reputation in the United States after four years of operating outside the country. In late 2025, the company relaunched in the U.S. following the acquisition of QCEX, granting Americans limited access to its event contracts under CFTC oversight.
Previous DOJ and CFTC Probe Concluded
The Justice Department, alongside the CFTC, previously examined whether the crypto prediction market circumvented restrictions on U.S. traders imposed under a 2022 settlement with the CFTC. The authorities ended that probe in July 2024.
