Bitcoin under pressure: Is Japan instead of Greenland the trigger for the crash?
- Bitcoin has temporarily fallen over 8% since Sunday and is currently trading at around $89,400.
- Experts see the driver as a renewed shock in the Japanese bond market and not the US-EU customs dispute.
The Bitcoin price has fallen by more than 8 percent since Sunday. After BTC temporarily reached almost 98,000 US dollars with a strong start to the year, a large part of these gains has now been given back. On Wednesday, Bitcoin was trading at around $89,400. The US-EU customs dispute in the wake of Donald Trump’s Greenland demands was initially seen as the trigger for the setback.
In fact, according to several market observers, an abrupt shock in the Japanese bond market may have led to the risk-off move in Bitcoin and altcoins, while gold hit a new all-time high at $4,888 an ounce. Japan’s bond yields exploded: the 30-year JGBs rose to 3.875 percent (record), the 40-year to 4.224 percent (record), and the 10-year JGBs rose 3.7 percent in a day.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made Japan the direct driver of the current market turmoil in a TV appearance on Tuesday. Bessent explained:
“I think the markets are falling because the Japanese bond market has had a move of six standard deviations in the last two days. […] “I have been in touch with my economic policy contacts in Japan and urged them to take the necessary measures to stabilize their bond market – but this is spilling over into all bond markets.”
He added that yields rose not only in the US, but also in Germany and France, and emphasized: “This has nothing to do with Greenland.”
Bessent: Markets are going down because Japan’s bond market just suffered a six-standard-deviation move in ten-year bonds over the past two days… This has nothing to do with Greenland. pic.twitter.com/i1JVNR4vWw
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) January 20, 2026
The central fear: Japan is considered the largest foreign holder of US government bonds. If the rise in domestic yields causes Japanese investors to stay at home more or create selling pressure, this could hit the US Treasury market – either through lower demand or through reallocations.
BitMEX-Gründer Arthur Hayes wrote to do this on X:
“The problem for bonds is if Japanese investors stay home because yields on JGBs are higher and stop funding Pax Americana.”
In another post, he highlighted the long maturities as a potential spark: “This is the match: the 30-year JGB yield. Let’s see how big the fire gets.”
From Hayes’ point of view, the headline itself is less important than the volatility. He advises:
“Watch MOVE. If he shoots to 130-140, some sort of bailout is coming. Otherwise, get ready for the pain trade if that triggers risk-off.”
LondonCryptoClub (@LDNCryptoClub) argued on
“Bitcoin is reflexively traded as a risk asset. However, it will quickly recognize the liquidity and subsequent devaluation and follow the price of gold. As previously mentioned, Bitcoin covers both the left and right ends of the risk distribution. On the left, when the current economic and political structures collapse, it is the ultimate hedge. We are not there yet… but we are getting close to that point.”
Meanwhile, Dan Tapiero, founder and CEO of 50T Funds, explains on X that Bitcoin should actually rise, but perhaps not immediately:
“The Japanese bond market is collapsing completely and is currently affecting all markets. This is what a market looks like that is no longer functioning properly. The authorities will try to intervene and stabilize the situation. Bessent is aware of this. The yen will continue to fall sharply. Gold is rising, Bitcoin is expected to follow.”
Wipeout.
Complete annihilation in Japanese bond mkts infecting ALL markets right now.
This is what discontinuity/dysfunctionality of a mkt looks like.
Authorities will attempt to step in to smoothe.
Bessent aware.
Yen going down a lot more.
Gold up, btc eventually follows. pic.twitter.com/jiQEdQgCLX
— Dan Tapiero (@DTAPCAP) January 20, 2026
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