- Since January 2025, the Bitcoin market has passed into a longer distribution phase, which signals a significant change in investor behavior.
- External factors such as the introduction of tariffs, crypto hacks and regulatory developments have played a role in the design of the mood of investors.
The weekly Newsletter From Glassnode shows that Bitcoin has entered a phase of distribution after his ATH. This is seen as a natural stage in its cyclical market behavior, which reflects the changing investment mood and the increasing pressure of the sales page. The newsletter says:
“The cyclical behavior of Bitcoin is a product of accumulation and distribution phases, whereby the capital rotates between the investment locations over time. Several accumulation cycles were followed by distribution phases, which historically led to weaker price development. ”
The current distribution phase began in January 2025, at the same time as the strong correction of Bitcoin from its all -time high from $ 109,000 to $ 93,000. This phase indicates increased sales pressure because the market participants take profits with them after the latest ATH. This means that investors who bought at lower prices during the accumulation phase now take profits with them, which leads to a gradual sale and a shift in market dynamics.
According to Glassnode, an important key figure for analyzing the market mood of the Accumulation Trend Score, which shows whether investors buy or sell Bitcoin over time. At the moment, the ATS has dropped below 0.1, which indicates that more investors sell their BTC, which contributes to stagnation or decline in the price.
How Bitcoin’s distribution phase affects the trust of investors
Between mid-December and the end of February, the Bitcoin course reflected a strong investor confidence, whereby the market participants actively bought in price burglaries, especially in the area of $ 95k $ 98k. This aggressive accumulation signaled a predominant upward mood, since investors interpreted setbacks as temporary breaks in a general upward trend.
At the end of February the market mood began to tip over when a mixture of tense liquidity and external risks led to growing uncertainty. The situation was through the Ethereum-Hack on bybit worth 1.4 billion USD and the escalating geopolitical tensions further tightened especially after President Donald Trump one Customs of 25 % On imports from the European Union (EU)Had announced .
This culminated in a critical breakthrough under the $ 92k mark, which marked a significant change in market behavior. In contrast to earlier declines, in which a strong purchase interest contributed to stabilizing prices, this decline in Bitcoin was under the cost base of the Short-Term Holder (STH), an important on-chain key figure, which is often regarded as a level of support.
Previously, course break -ins with aggressive purchases were answered, which increased the bullish narrative. Now the absence of purchases at lower levels indicates a phase of capital rotation, in which investors may switch off or take a more careful posture. This increases the likelihood of a longer consolidation or correction phase before Bitcoin finds a strong support basis.
In the past, moments of extreme sales creation have created opportunities for long -term investors. But with the STH Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR), which has stayed under one, since Bitcoin has fallen below $ 95k, it is obvious that many short-term investors will sell their stocks with losses.
In addition, Glassnode emphasized that when the Bitcoin price fell to $ 78,000 on Tuesday, the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOP) fell to 0.97, which indicates an intensive surrender. These panic -like sales, especially from newer investors who bought at a higher level, further increased the downward pressure because the losses increased.
Last week Bitcoin recorded a severe decline in 9.24 % and listed at $ 83,236. Despite a modest increase in the 24-hour returns by 0.62 %, the trading volume has dropped by 21.38 % and is now $ 37 billion.
This indicates that although there is a certain short -term stabilization, the market participation overall is steamed. As long as no clear level of support is established and the mood does not turn towards accumulation, Bitcoin could continue to be faced with headwind when it comes to gaining sustainable upward moment.
No Comments