- Bitcoin remains about 16% above its late-June low near $59,000 but has fallen roughly 21% from its autumn peak around $86,000.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $1.49 billion in net outflows across six consecutive sessions.
- Markets are pricing in a 91.9% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate increase in December, while Bitcoin’s technical indicators remain bearish despite oversold conditions.
Bitcoin Faces Renewed Pressure From Inflation and ETF Outflows
Bitcoin’s latest decline has erased much of its late-summer recovery, although BTC remains approximately 16% above its late-June low near $59,000. The cryptocurrency has also retreated roughly 21% from its autumn peak around $86,000 as investors respond to renewed inflation concerns, expectations for tighter monetary policy and weaker demand from U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
Inflation Raises the Stakes for the Federal Reserve’s December Decision
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee warned Friday that inflationary pressures had spread beyond energy and tariffs. He pointed to rising services and medical costs, as well as demand from artificial-intelligence data centers, as factors contributing to continued price pressure.
“Are we on a path back to 2%? My feeling right now is we are not and we’ve got to deal with that,” Goolsbee said according to Reuters.
Goolsbee did not explicitly support a December rate increase, but other Federal Reserve officials have taken a clearer position. On Tuesday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he supported raising interest rates by at least 25 basis points, or 0.25 percentage points, at the December 8-9 meeting.
Waller also outlined a condition that could justify a larger move. “If the October CPI inflation data out later today are similar to the past two monthly readings—with core CPI inflation around 0.3 percent or even higher—then a stronger policy move may be needed,” Waller said in his official remarks.
The subsequent report showed core consumer prices rising exactly 0.3%, above the 0.2% forecast and in line with Waller’s threshold for considering a 50-basis-point increase. Futures-based rate probabilities as of November 13 reflected those concerns, showing a 91.9% probability of a quarter-point increase and an 8.1% probability of a half-point increase.
Those probabilities represent trader expectations rather than a confirmed Federal Reserve decision. The central bank’s current target range is 3.75% to 4.00%. A separate producer-price report on Friday added to inflation concerns: wholesale prices increased 0.3% in October, below forecasts, but rose 6.5% year over year, marking the largest annual increase since 2022.
Higher interest rates can make traditional income-producing investments more attractive relative to Bitcoin and other speculative assets. That dynamic may reduce demand for cryptocurrencies as investors reassess risk ahead of the Federal Reserve’s December policy meeting.
Bitcoin ETF Withdrawals Add to Selling Pressure
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded six consecutive sessions of net outflows, totaling approximately $1.49 billion between November 5 and November 12. Thursday’s $47.7 million withdrawal extended the five-day outflow streak and added another source of pressure to a market already weakened by macroeconomic uncertainty.
The outflows do not indicate that institutional investors have abandoned Bitcoin altogether. The funds still hold approximately $55.5 billion in cumulative net inflows. However, the recent withdrawals highlight the level of investor caution surrounding Bitcoin’s latest decline.
When ETF demand weakens at the same time that leveraged traders face forced liquidations, selling can accelerate because fewer buyers are available to absorb the supply. That combination has made Bitcoin more vulnerable to sharp moves as traders wait for clearer signals on interest rates and inflation.
Bitcoin Technical Indicators Point to a Bearish Short-Term Trend
Bitcoin’s daily chart shows a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows, confirming a bearish short-term trajectory. The relative strength index, or RSI, has fallen to 25.4. Readings below 30 are generally considered oversold, indicating that selling may have become stretched.
The average directional index, or ADX, stands at 25.3, signaling that an established trend is in place. Combined with declining prices, the reading suggests that bearish momentum remains meaningful rather than reflecting only a brief pullback.
One longer-term positive signal remains: the 50-day exponential moving average is still above the 200-day EMA, preserving a bullish moving-average configuration. Bitcoin’s price has nevertheless fallen below the shorter-term average, showing that recent momentum has shifted against buyers.
Immediate support is located around $67,650, Friday’s intraday low. A break below that level could expose a deeper support area near $64,000. On the upside, Bitcoin would need to recover $70,815 and $72,775 before challenging the stronger resistance zone between $74,355 and $75,937.
Extreme oversold conditions leave room for a temporary rebound, but the combination of oversold readings and strong downward momentum does not yet provide enough evidence to confirm a market bottom.
Why This Matters
Bitcoin’s near-term direction will depend heavily on whether inflation continues to limit the Federal Reserve’s ability to ease monetary policy. Higher rates can pressure speculative assets, while continued ETF outflows may reduce one of the market’s key sources of institutional demand.
Traders are now focused on two major macroeconomic events: the Federal Reserve’s November 18 meeting minutes and the November 25 personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, inflation report. Both could influence expectations ahead of the Fed’s December interest-rate decision and affect Bitcoin’s next major move.
Frequently Asked Questions
How far has Bitcoin fallen from its recent peak?
Bitcoin has declined roughly 21% from its autumn peak around $86,000, although it remains approximately 16% above its late-June low near $59,000.
How much money has flowed out of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs?
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $1.49 billion in net outflows across six consecutive sessions between November 5 and November 12. Thursday’s withdrawal alone totaled $47.7 million.
What levels are important for Bitcoin next?
Immediate support is around $67,650, with deeper support near $64,000. Bitcoin needs to recover $70,815 and $72,775 before testing resistance between $74,355 and $75,937.
