Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen has warned investors that Bitcoin historically declines following a “Golden Cross” pattern, a technical formation typically interpreted as a bullish signal.
Golden Cross Often Precedes Short-Term Pullback
The Golden Cross occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. While technicians widely view this crossover as a long-term buy signal, Cowen’s analysis of past cycles shows the pattern frequently coincides with local market tops.
Analyst: “Bitcoin Generally Seen to Decline After a Gold Crossover”
According to Cowen, the rallies that precede the Golden Cross push the moving averages higher to create the crossover. However, once the intersection is complete, the market often experiences sell-offs from those local highs. Historical data from the 2019 and 2023 Golden Cross events shows pullbacks ranging between 12% and 15% at the moment of intersection, followed by recovery and new local highs.
Current Pullback Considered Natural
Cowen characterizes the ongoing pullback as a natural market structure development. He emphasizes that the critical factor is not the depth of the initial selling wave, but the character of the rebound rally that follows. It remains uncertain whether Bitcoin will establish a new high or form a lower peak after the sell-off concludes.
Bullish vs. Bearish Scenarios for Q4
Outlining forward-looking scenarios, Cowen stated that a higher peak during the rebound would strengthen the bullish case. Conversely, if the rebound remains weak and forms a lower peak—similar to the price action observed in 2014 and 2015—the risk of a renewed downturn in the fourth quarter could increase.
This is not investment advice.
