- VanEck expects Bitcoin consolidation in 2026.
- Declining volatility and adjusted leverage tend to suggest bottoming out.
VanEck expects Bitcoin to be a year of consolidation in 2026, rather than a new parabolic rise or a deeper crash.
In a 2026 outlook titled “Plan for 2026: Predictions from Our Portfolio Managers,” Matthew Sigel (Head of Digital Assets Research) writes that the broader crypto market “enters 2026 with mixed but constructive signals. Bitcoin fell about 80% in the last cycle, but realized volatility has since fallen by about half, implying a proportional decline of around 40% this time.”
No Bitcoin price target, but a bottom forecast
Since the Bitcoin price is already almost 35% below October’s all-time high of $126,199, VanEck assumes that the further fall is likely to be relatively small. A 40% drawdown from the all-time high could mean a cycle low around $75,000.
Additionally, Sigel relies on the historical halving cycle: “Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle, which typically peaks immediately after the US election, remains unchanged after peaking in early October 2025. This pattern suggests that 2026 will be a year of consolidation rather than a year of rapid rise or collapse.”
In support of this thesis, VanEck’s chief analyst highlights three other reasons: First, global liquidity is “mixed”: possible interest rate cuts could be bullish, while US liquidity tightens “a little” as AI-driven bubble worries meet a more fragile funding environment and credit spreads widen. This is rather bearish.
Secondly, leverage levels across the crypto market have reset after several “washouts” such as the October 10 crash, which is also a bullish signal. Third, Sigel observes positive on-chain signals, “even if they are not yet clear.”
However, VanEck consciously remains defensive. To its institutional clients, the asset manager recommends “a disciplined Bitcoin allocation of 1 to 3%, built up via dollar-cost averaging,” supplemented by active timing: follow-up purchases in the event of “leverage unwinds” and scale “into speculative excesses.”
2026 predictions from VanEck PMs in replies. pic.twitter.com/iWpdSobkPE
— matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) December 22, 2025
In addition to the macro events, VanEck addresses the increasingly loud topic of quantum computers. “We also note that Quantum Security has become an active topic within the community, and while it is not an immediate threat, any coordinated response could be similar to the early Blocksize debates.”
The key is the process: During the 2017 Blocksize Wars, “a transparent and technically rich public process attracted large numbers of new observers to the ecosystem and strengthened long-term commitment,” said Sigel.
Bitcoin miners and stablecoins
However, VanEck sees the strongest opportunities not in the Bitcoin spot market, but in the mining sector. The authors expect the “strongest opportunity” in capital-intensive competition for 2026: Miners would have to simultaneously expand hashrate and finance AI and high-performance computing (HPC) infrastructure. “This is pushing balance sheets to their limits and widening the cost of capital spread within the sector.”
According to VanEck, miners with hyperscaler partnerships can take out new loans on attractive terms, while second-tier operators rely on dilutive converts or “sell Bitcoin into weakness.”
VanEck speaks of “the cleanest consolidation setup since 2020 to 2021” and sees the best risk-reward profile in miners evolving into “energy-backed compute platforms” with “credible HPC economics,” cheap electricity access and advantageous financing routes.
VanEck cites stablecoins in B2B payment transactions as a second, more selective thesis: real settlement flows could improve working capital and reduce cross-border costs. However, the authors see the “most lasting” opportunity in fintech and e-commerce operators that enable adoption, rather than in broad token exposure.
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