Bitcoin rose above $81,000 last week before falling back to approximately $78,000 after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish speech in Jackson Hole. With BTC trading near $78,000 in recent days, cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute has outlined its latest expectations for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Could Trade Between $75,000 and $82,000 Before the Fed Meeting
Wintermute expects Bitcoin to remain between $75,000 and $82,000 until the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for September 15–16.
According to Wintermute’s latest market analysis, Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting increased expectations of a September rate hike to 64.4%. The company expects the September FOMC meeting to become a major catalyst for risk assets, particularly cryptocurrencies.
Wintermute said market expectations for interest rates will be a decisive factor in Bitcoin’s next move. Economic data due during the first two weeks of September could significantly alter those expectations ahead of the FOMC meeting.
US nonfarm payrolls data, scheduled for release on September 4, will be closely watched for its potential impact on interest-rate expectations and the direction of BTC.
$82,000 Resistance Remains Key for Bitcoin
Wintermute also noted that Bitcoin has faced repeated selling pressure near $82,000 following its recent rally. The company identified the following key levels:
“$82,000: As a significant resistance$75,000: As the first significant support$72,000: As a critical support”
Wintermute warned that a weekly Bitcoin close below $72,000 could alter the current market outlook. Below that level, the company sees no clearly defined support zone, potentially increasing the risk of further declines.
In the current market environment, Wintermute considers a pullback toward $75,000 a healthier short-term move for Bitcoin. Such a decline could clear leveraged positions before the market makes another attempt to move higher.
Based on this outlook, Wintermute expects Bitcoin to consolidate within the $75,000–$82,000 range until the September FOMC meeting.
This is not investment advice.
