Bitcoin as a victim of imaginary quantum computing attacks – long before a real threat
- Advances in the field of quantum computers are leading prophets of doom to panic – but there will be no real threat to Bitcoin for a long time.
- Bitcoin security upgrades are encountering slow consensus, increasing tension over the timing of quantum-resistant adoption.
In connection with advances in quantum computing, there is increasing concern that Bitcoin encryption will not last much longer. Innovations from Google, IBM and Caltech have drawn attention to a possible “Q-Day,” the day when the encryption used by Bitcoin could be cracked. The day is still far away, but the fear of it has already done its damage.
Many analysts warn that the currently completely unfounded fear could still trigger large sales long before a quantum computer gains the ability to unravel the Bitcoin protection algorithm.
Yoon Auh, founder of post-quantum company BOLTS Technologies, pointed to recent market behavior. He says:
“Crypto had a bit of a flash crash. A sale of $50 million to $100 million – basically not worth mentioning in traditional markets – triggered massive losses for blockchain assets. This shows how fragile the system still is.”
Doubts about encryption can trigger panic selling
Earlier this month, President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports led to the largest single-day crypto sale ever. As CNF reported, around $19 billion evaporated when the Bitcoin price briefly fell below $102,000. The traders reacted before any verification or context was even apparent.
Auh warned that the same thing would play out if rumors about quantum computers decrypting the Bitcoin algorithm grow:
“Imagine hearing someone say, ‘Elliptic curve cryptography can be broken now, maybe not right away, but soon.’ Everyone would run for the exit. The system would trip over itself.”
A past event in 2017 provided an example. A false online claim about Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin caused billions of dollars in losses.
The concerns stem from the mathematics underlying Bitcoin wallets. In 1994, Peter Shor showed that a sufficiently powerful quantum computer running his algorithm could calculate elliptic curve cryptography and reveal private keys. Bitcoin uses one method on behalf of “secp256k1” which is based on this math.
Ethereum and Solana could overtake Bitcoin in upgrade
Rebecca Krauthamer from QuSecure pointed to ML-DSA, which was standardized by NIST as a replacement for elliptic curve signatures. ML-DSA relies on grid mathematics designed to resist attempts at decryption. Only a few blockchains, such as QRL, Cellframe, Algorand, IOTA and Nervos, have already integrated quantum-resistant signatures.
Many larger blockchains, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, continue to research and test incrementally. Any change to Bitcoin requires broad coordination between miners, developers and node operators, meaning in practice longer debates, validation and community acceptance.
Scott Aaronson of the University of Texas at Austin noted that in Bitcoin you need a majority of miners to agree to a fork. He mentioned that early coins worth large sums are only protected by current elliptic curve methods. Ethereum and Solana could adapt more quickly due to the different governance structures.
Christopher Peikert of the University of Michigan said quantum risk is above 5% in long-term forecasts, but not in the near term. He noted that post-quantum methods will likely require larger signatures and larger block sizes, raising performance concerns. He added:
“In the short term, you should avoid revealing public keys on a public network unless absolutely necessary and only give those keys a short lifespan.”
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