- CPI (Tuesday) and PPI (Wednesday) could shift Fed rate and liquidity expectations. Bitcoin and the entire crypto market could react volatile.
- In addition to the Powell-Trump dispute, Supreme Court decisions (Wednesday) and the Senate Committee markup on the digital asset market structure (Thursday) could also have a noticeable impact on market sentiment.
Bitcoin and the entire crypto market are entering a week that could potentially offer high volatility. While the week is expected to be dominated by US macro data and events, an important step for future crypto regulation is approaching in Washington: a crucial committee markup in the Senate.
Initially, however, the dispute between US Central Bank Chairman (Fed) Jerome Powell and US President Donald Trump could set the tone. Late Sunday evening, Powell said the U.S. Department of Justice had served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas and threatened criminal charges.
“The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Fed setting interest rates based on its best assessment of what serves the public good, rather than by following the president’s preferences,” Powell said in a combative tone in a video message.
BREAKING: Fed Chair Powell responds after Federal prosecutors open a criminal investigation into him:
“The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Fed setting rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of… pic.twitter.com/y1dRdoQ1fm
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 12, 2026
At the start of the week, it remains to be seen how the global financial markets will assess the renewed escalation of the dispute. In particular, the start of trading on the US markets is likely to be crucial in determining whether the Bitcoin and crypto market will decline as a result of further uncertainty about what will happen with the Fed’s interest rate policy.
Potential Volatility Drivers for Bitcoin and Crypto
The (plannable) focus of this week is this US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 on Tuesday, January 13th, at 2:30 p.m. German time. For Bitcoin and crypto, US consumer inflation remains a key driving force because Bitcoin & Co. continue to react strongly to liquidity and interest rate policy.
Market expectations are clear: +0.3% month-on-month is expected for December, while the annual rate of headline CPI is seen at 2.7%. Estimates for the core index (excluding energy and food) are around +0.31% m/m and also 2.7% year-on-year.
On Wednesday, January 14th, at 2:30 p.m. German time, then the (delayed) Release of US Producer Prices (PPI) into focus. The BLS plans to present the PPI data for November 2025 on this day and has announced that it will publish the missing October data together with the November release.
Producer prices often serve as a leading indicator for consumer prices; in this respect, the PPI can also have a larger impact. Consensus estimates for headline PPI are +0.3% MoM and 2.7% YoY. Core PPI is expected to be +0.1% MoM and 2.6% YoY.
Additionally could be on 14 January a legal impulse with macroeconomic implications in the pricing of the Bitcoin and crypto market: The US Supreme Court is expected to publish decisions that day; The still pending cases also include the proceedings regarding the admissibility of the President Donald Trump’s tariff policy.
The court does not announce in advance which specific cases will be decided. However, a tariff-related decision could have a major impact on the entire financial market; Bitcoin and the entire crypto market are unlikely to be spared.
On the regulatory crypto track, the debate about a US-wide market structure is heading towards an important milestone. Senator Tim Scott, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, has scheduled for Thursday, 15 Januarya Committee markup on “comprehensive digital asset market structure” legislation announced.
“This law is designed to make America the crypto capital of the world – so that the next generation of jobs and innovations are created here, not abroad. Clear rules give entrepreneurs the confidence to start companies, hire people and grow here in the United States. […] After months of serious, bipartisan work, it is now time to move this project forward and deliver concrete results for the American people.”
said Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott said last week.
For the market, this date is less important because of a final result – a markup is not a ratification – but it is seen as a sentiment indicator: Is there a resilient coalition that can agree on a draft law? If so, this would be extremely positive news for the entire crypto market.
Crypto events this week
Aside from the macro dates, the focus is on several protocol events: Polygon (POL) will present its vision for the “Open Money Stack” on January 13th; A privacy hackathon starts at Solana (SOL) on January 12th. Thorchain (RUNE) is also preparing to integrate Solana to enable native cross-chain swaps.
The Fermi hard fork is planned for January 14th on the BNB Chain (BNB), which is expected to bring significantly faster transaction finality. At MultiversX (EGLD), voting to activate “Supernova,” a major scaling upgrade to the network, ends on January 18th.
Crypto Watchlist for the week ahead$POL – Polygon will introduce its vision for the Open Money Stack on Jan. 13$SOL – Solana’s Privacy Hackathon starts on Jan. 12$RUNE – Thorchain will soon integrate Solana for native cross-chain swaps$THEY – Huma Finance’s January… pic.twitter.com/Hi8oHXy6ug
— The DeFi Investor
(@TheDeFInvestor) January 11, 2026
No Comments