Key Highlights:
- Analyst Farrell believes Bitcoin could surpass $100,000 in 2026, although he has lowered his earlier $115,000 target.
- Bitcoin’s moves above its 200-day and 50-week moving averages may indicate a shift in the long-term market regime.
- A more aggressive US Treasury bond issuance strategy could become a “very strong” catalyst for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Could Still Surpass $100,000 in 2026
Analyst Farrell believes Bitcoin could rise above $100,000 in 2026, despite the possibility of a short-term correction. Farrell previously set a $115,000 target for Bitcoin at the beginning of the year, but no longer expects that level to be reached in 2026. He nevertheless continues to see a path for Bitcoin to exceed $100,000.
Farrell does not rule out a decline of roughly 10% from current levels. However, he said such a pullback could attract strong buyers back into the market. His outlook suggests that any near-term weakness may be viewed by some market participants as an opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin rather than as evidence of a broader trend reversal.
Bitcoin’s Moving-Average Signals Point to a Possible Market Shift
Farrell also highlighted Bitcoin’s technical structure. He noted that Bitcoin’s price moved above its 200-day moving average after trading below that level for an extended period, a development that has historically been viewed as a positive signal.
According to Farrell, an even more important development was Bitcoin’s clear break above the 50-week moving average several weeks ago. He believes that move could indicate a change in the long-term market regime and potentially encourage new Bitcoin inflows from trend-following investment strategies.
US Treasury Bond Issuance Could Affect Bitcoin
Another factor Farrell is monitoring is the US Treasury’s next quarterly funding announcement. He said that a decision by the Treasury to reduce or adopt a more aggressive approach to issuing 10- to 30-year bonds could become a “very strong” catalyst for Bitcoin.
Farrell’s broader view is that monetary devaluation may develop gradually rather than through a sudden break. He compared the process to a “slowly melting ice cube,” arguing that rare assets could become increasingly prominent over the long term during periods of dollar devaluation.
He also pointed to Bitcoin’s relatively limited pullback during the most recent bear market compared with previous cycles. Farrell views that resilience as a possible sign of a structural change in Bitcoin’s market behavior, although he emphasized that the process could unfold over years.
Why This Matters
Farrell’s analysis connects Bitcoin’s potential price performance with both technical market signals and broader monetary conditions. A sustained move above key moving averages could influence trend-following investment strategies, while changes in US Treasury issuance could affect expectations surrounding liquidity, bond markets and dollar valuation.
The outlook remains conditional. Bitcoin could still experience a short-term correction, and Farrell’s revised 2026 target is lower than his earlier forecast. The next US Treasury quarterly funding announcement and Bitcoin’s ability to maintain its position above key moving averages are among the developments most relevant to this view.
Frequently Asked Questions
Could Bitcoin surpass $100,000 in 2026?
Yes. Farrell believes Bitcoin could exceed $100,000 in 2026, although he no longer expects his earlier $115,000 target to be reached during the year.
What technical signals is Farrell watching?
Farrell is focused on Bitcoin’s move above its 200-day moving average and its clear break above the 50-week moving average. He believes these developments could signal a shift in the long-term market regime.
What could become a catalyst for Bitcoin?
Farrell said that if the US Treasury reduces or becomes more aggressive in issuing 10- to 30-year bonds, the change could become a “very strong” catalyst for Bitcoin.
This is not investment advice.
