Bernstein: Bitcoin bear market milder than ever, target $150,000 in 2026
- Bernstein calls the current Bitcoin drawdown the “mildest” bear case to date and is sticking to the price target of $150,000 by the end of 2026.
- According to Bernstein, there is no systemic break, but rather a “homemade” crisis of trust.
Bernstein is sticking to his medium-term outlook despite the recent Bitcoin crash. In a note to clients on Monday, analysts led by Gautam Chhugani described the current drawdown as the “mildest” bear case in Bitcoin history and confirmed their price target of $150,000 by the end of 2026.
Bernstein interpreted The ongoing downward trend is not seen as a structural problem, but above all as a psychological effect. “What we are experiencing is the weakest Bitcoin bear case in its history,” writes Chhugani. Unlike in previous cycles, there was no discernible dominant trigger that would have damaged the system itself: no major implosions like FTX or Terra/Luna, no hidden leverage, no systemic rupture.
Bitcoin forecast for 2026 remains in place
Chhugani describes the situation as a homemade crisis of trust within the community. “The Bitcoin community is producing a self-imposed crisis of trust. Nothing has exploded, no bodies will fall from the closet. The media is back to write an obituary,” the note continued.
Bernstein anchors this classification in an environment that, from the house’s perspective, is significantly different from previous bear markets: a pro-Bitcoin US president, institutional demand via spot Bitcoin ETFs, growing corporate treasury holdings and the stronger presence of large asset managers. For Bernstein, the interaction of these factors is the reason why the current phase is not seen as a break in the adoption narrative, but rather as a temporary “crisis of trust”.
A key point for the bears: Bitcoin has underperformed gold in recent macro-driven volatility. However, analysts argue that Bitcoin continues to trade primarily as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset – not a mature safe haven like gold. In an environment of tight monetary policy and high interest rates, profits would have been concentrated in selected areas such as precious metals and AI-related stocks.
According to Bernstein, the market infrastructure has continued to improve in recent months, preparing it for the next liquidity stimulus. ETFs and company purchases are intact and could – as soon as the sales momentum subsides – resume buying pressure and act as a demand buffer. This is an essential building block for the $150,000 scenario by 2026.
Bernstein also rejects the theory that Bitcoin will lose relevance in an AI-dominated economy. Chhugani sees more of a tailwind in the context of an increasingly “agentic” digital environment: blockchains and programmable wallets are predestined to provide global, machine-readable financial rails – while traditional banking could come under pressure in this transition.
On Quantum Risk, Bernstein acknowledges that future cryptographic threats require preparation. What is crucial, however, is that Bitcoin is not uniquely exposed here: critical digital systems face similar challenges and would migrate together towards quantum-resistant standards. Bernstein cites the transparency of the code base as an advantage as well as the increasing involvement of large, well-capitalized players such as Strategy, who could support adjustments.
Bernstein also addresses the concern that forced sales by leveraged corporate treasury firms and miner capitulation could trigger massive selling pressure. However, the research team believes that large Bitcoin holders have structured their liabilities to survive longer drawdowns. Chhugani explicitly refers to a statement from Strategy: Only if Bitcoin falls to $8,000 and stays there for five years would the balance sheet have to be restructured.
Bernstein also sees less pressure on miners than in previous phases. The analysts argue that miners have diversified their business models and can cushion costs on the side by aligning capacities more closely with the demand of AI data centers.
Against this backdrop, Bernstein concludes that the risk of forced selling has “materially” decreased – and that the current weakness, despite its signaling effect on sentiment, does not change the medium-term price target of $150,000 by the end of 2026.
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