Key Highlights
- Bitcoin has closed above the 50-week moving average (~$79,000), with the next technical target at the 100-week moving average (~$89,000).
- Analyst PlanB declares the Bitcoin bear market over, citing August’s close at $78,571 and recovery across multiple market indicators.
- Profitable Bitcoin supply surged from 50% to 72%, while the monthly RSI climbed from 41 to 51, signaling strengthening momentum.
Bitcoin Breaks Key Technical Barrier as PlanB Signals Bear Market End
Bitcoin’s price action has crossed a critical threshold, closing above the 50-week moving average near $79,000 and trading around $81,000 at the time of analysis. Widely followed pseudonymous analyst PlanB highlighted the development, stating, “Bitcoin closed above the 50-week moving average. The next target is the 100-week moving average, around $89,000.” This technical milestone positions the asset for a potential test of the longer-term 100-week average, a level historically associated with major trend transitions.
Multiple On-Chain and Momentum Indicators Confirm Recovery
Beyond the moving average crossover, PlanB emphasized a confluence of supporting data points. The analyst noted that August concluded with Bitcoin at $78,571, marking a turning point after which various market indicators began to recover. Notably, the percentage of Bitcoin supply in a profitable state has jumped significantly from 50% to 72%, reflecting a broad improvement in holder economics. Simultaneously, the monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen from 41 to 51, crossing above the neutral 50 threshold and indicating a shift from bearish to bullish momentum on the macro timeframe.
Analyst Concludes Bottom Is Likely In
Synthesizing these technical and on-chain metrics, PlanB assessed that the bear market in Bitcoin has ended and that the cryptocurrency may have already passed its cycle bottom. The combination of price reclaiming the 50-week moving average, expanding profitable supply, and improving momentum oscillators constructs a technical framework that supports bullish expectations for the upcoming period. While the analyst’s commentary carries weight in the crypto community, the standard disclaimer applies: This is not investment advice.
Why This Matters
The 50-week and 100-week moving averages are among the most watched long-term trend filters in Bitcoin technical analysis. A sustained close above the 50-week average has historically preceded extended uptrends, while the 100-week average often acts as a “line in the sand” between bull and bear market regimes. The simultaneous improvement in realized profitability metrics—from 50% to 72% of supply in profit—suggests a reduction in unrealized losses across the network, which typically reduces selling pressure. The monthly RSI reclaiming 50 adds a momentum confirmation that has been absent during the recent consolidation phase. Together, these factors align with a classic market structure shift from accumulation to markup, though macroeconomic risks and regulatory developments remain external variables.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What are the specific price levels for the 50-week and 100-week moving averages mentioned by PlanB?
- The 50-week moving average sits around $79,000, which Bitcoin has now closed above. The next target, the 100-week moving average, is approximately $89,000.
- What on-chain metric showed the most dramatic improvement according to the analysis?
- The percentage of Bitcoin supply in a profitable state increased from 50% to 72%, a 22-percentage-point jump indicating significantly healthier holder economics across the network.
- Does PlanB’s analysis constitute a price prediction or investment recommendation?
- No. The analysis presents a technical assessment based on moving averages, profitability ratios, and momentum indicators. The source explicitly includes the disclaimer: “This is not investment advice.”
