- The Bitcoin plunge has not sparked the altcoin rally some expected, and traders remain cautious.
- Network activity does not show any speculation that goes beyond the usual level.
Bitcoin has fallen nearly sixteen percent over the past month, showing weakness that has not translated into gains for altcoins. Its market share fell from 61.4% to 58.9%. Many traders were hoping for an altcoin season because of this decline.
Contrary to expectations, the leading altcoins ETH, ADA, DOGE and SOL fell even more than the BTC price. Traders did not jump into riskier tokens. XRP/BTC is showing a bit of strength, but most other altcoins are still struggling and the market lacks strong momentum for alternative cryptocurrencies.
Onchain data confirms this picture. Ethereum remains active without overheating, and Base processes approximately nineteen million transactions every day. Coinbase’s Launchpad and smart wallet tools encourage token creation, but rising fees or network congestion do not show the market is fueling risky speculation.
Little altcoin growth despite stable network activity
Rohit Apte, Head of Markets at Hex Trust, told CoinDesk in an interview:
“Bitcoin’s decline this month reflects a general asset drawdown that began with liquidation in October. Since then, the market has shrunk as leverage has been reduced.”
This suggests that the current price weakness is a general adjustment and not a short-term altcoin price weakness.
ETH/BTC has fallen slightly while XRP/BTC has performed better, suggesting that investors are not yet aggressively investing in smaller tokens. However, a sustainable altcoin season requires that the major cryptocurrencies first stabilize.
Onchain metrics from Blockscout show stable activity on networks such as Optimism, Arbitrum, Polygon and Celo. Millions of transactions take place every day without causing network congestion or higher fees. The market moves smoothly and manages the current cycle with regular transaction levels rather than reacting to speculative spikes.
Bitcoin and Ether need stable consolidation
BTC and ETH need to consolidate before smaller tokens can gain traction. Apte emphasized:
“For a sustainable rotation in altcoins, we would first need to see the majors stabilize and establish price consolidation.”
Meanwhile, altcoins may continue to face downward pressure relative to Bitcoin and Ether, keeping their gains limited for now.
Market participants appear to be cautiously reducing their exposure and avoiding major risks in riskier assets. The market is likely to remain sideways for a while, showing caution rather than panic. If major cryptocurrencies recover or stabilize, it could determine whether altcoins gain in the next few weeks.
While Base continues to experience high activity, other networks remain stable and do not experience excessive transaction spikes. This steady throughput shows that current trading conditions are orderly and controlled. A true altcoin season is often accompanied by high fees, chain congestion, and widespread network activity – none of which are currently being seen.
Bitcoin’s weakness has not translated into risk-taking behavior in the broader crypto market. October’s leverage sell-off drains market energy without fueling the altcoin rally. Smaller tokens could continue to lag until major cryptocurrencies stabilize, even as investors have been hoping for a shift into alternative assets.
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