Key Highlights
- Author and journalist Jonathan Margolis, who has spent 30 years studying serious futurology, has outlined major predictions for the year 2066 alongside projections from an AI bot named Cassi.
- Margolis projects an 80 percent likelihood that China will replace the United States as the world’s most significant nation, alongside a 70 percent chance of a critical global shortage of children.
- Urban transportation is predicted to shift drastically toward autonomous travel, with private vehicle ownership expected to become virtually extinct in major cities over the next four decades.
Futurology has often been dominated by mystical figures and viral clairvoyants, such as the late mystic Baba Vanga, who garnered international attention for forecasts spanning decades. However, a more analytical discipline of forecasting relies on socio-economic trends, technological advances, and historical patterns. Journalist and author Jonathan Margolis has spent three decades evaluating these empirical forecasts. In his book, A Brief History of Tomorrow, Margolis scrutinized the historical accuracy of professional futurologists, assessing what they anticipated correctly and where their visions failed. Margolis has also pointed to his own past forecasts that materialized, including the rise of Islamism and the probability of an unprecedentedly extreme terrorist incident
.
Revisiting the discipline in a feature for The Independent, Margolis partnered with an artificial intelligence bot named Cassi to contrast algorithmic projections with his own human analysis of what society will look like in 2066. The automated model generated several startling benchmarks for four decades into the future, suggesting a 21 percent likelihood that humans will achieve biological de-aging—a concept currently pursued by longevity enthusiasts such as Bryan Johnson. Additionally, Cassi calculated a greater than 50 percent chance that news organizations will no longer be led by human personnel by 2066.
Geopolitical Shifts and Demographic Reversals
Taking a comprehensive look at global power dynamics, Margolis outlined wide-ranging forecasts that challenge the existing global order. Most notably, he assigned an 80 percent probability to the prediction that the United States will no longer serve as the world’s most significant nation
, forecasting instead that it will be superseded by China by 2066. While Margolis evaluated that the U.S. will maintain its status as the wealthiest nation
, he argued that it will not recover its international prestige post-Trump
.
Beyond geopolitical realignment, Margolis warned of profound demographic headwinds, placing a strong 70 percent likelihood on the emergence of a global shortage of children
driven by shifting societal preferences toward smaller families. This demographic trajectory aligns with broader empirical findings from researchers at Our World in Data, which document that worldwide fertility rates have fallen by roughly half since 1950. Sustained declines in birth rates threaten economic stability by distorting the workforce-to-dependent ratio, creating an aging population supported by a shrinking productive workforce that can constrain long-term economic output.
Urban Mobility and the Future of Daily Life
Margolis also anticipated radical changes to municipal infrastructure and personal transportation. Within the next 40 years, he predicts that private car ownership in metropolitan areas will become almost unknown
. In place of personal vehicles, urban residents will rely on 24-hour free self-driven pods
to move through cities. However, Margolis maintained that traditional automotive transit will persist outside metropolitan hubs, noting that personal cars will continue to operate in rural jurisdictions.
This anticipated mobility transformation reflects shifting contemporary attitudes toward vehicular dependency. A May survey conducted by IPSOS revealed that while personal vehicle ownership is not disappearing immediately, the cracks are real
. The research found that 43 percent of participants considered life without a personal car to be impossible, yet strong demographic and geographic divides emerged. Younger generations were substantially less likely to categorize car ownership as a necessity, and urban residents reported far less reliance on private vehicles than their rural counterparts—with only 37 percent of city dwellers declaring a car indispensable, compared to 60 percent of individuals in rural communities.
Injecting a dose of satire into his technological outlook, Margolis offered a 65 percent chance that citizens in 2066 will engage in worship of artificial intelligence deities because, unlike gods, they may answer their prayers
. At the same time, he assigned an overwhelming 99 percent certainty that everyday hardware frustrations will endure, predicting humanity will still find itself struggling against printer jams.
Why This Matters
The predictions put forward by Margolis and AI systems highlight critical intersections between emerging technologies, demographics, and global economics that are already beginning to reshape policy today. The steady downward slide in global birth rates is forcing governments across Europe, East Asia, and the Americas to reconsider pension systems, healthcare funding, and immigration strategies as demographic pyramids invert. Simultaneously, municipal transit authorities are actively preparing urban cores for micro-mobility, low-emission zones, and eventual autonomous fleets, matching the cultural pivot of younger, urban demographics away from private vehicle ownership. As artificial intelligence advances deeper into media production and civic life, distinguishing between structured forecasting and technological hype remains essential for corporate and public sector planning.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is Jonathan Margolis and what is his background in forecasting?
Jonathan Margolis is an author and journalist who has spent 30 years tracking serious, non-mystical futurology. He authored the book A Brief History of Tomorrow, in which he examined the successes and failures of professional futurologists, and he has made past geopolitical forecasts, including anticipating heightened global extremism.
What does Margolis predict regarding global fertility and populations by 2066?
Margolis predicts a 70 percent chance of a widespread global shortage of children as families continue to choose smaller household sizes. This projection mirrors empirical data showing that global fertility rates have decreased by roughly 50 percent since 1950, creating challenges such as an aging population and a diminishing labor force.
Will personal cars disappear completely according to the 2066 forecast?
No. While Margolis forecasts that private car ownership will be practically nonexistent in major cities due to automated, continuous pod transit, he expects that automobiles will remain in use throughout rural regions where mass autonomous transit is less feasible.
