US Open Predictions and Picks for Tuesday, September 1
The US Open first round concludes Tuesday, with Americans Madison Keys and Taylor Fritz competing during the day session. Gael Monfils will play in the evening in what is expected to be his final US Open appearance.
Below are tennis predictions for Tuesday’s US Open matches, including winner payouts, key statistics, and PrizePicks recommendations.
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US Open Match Predictions and PrizePicks Payouts
Before reviewing Tuesday’s tennis picks, here is a look at the featured matches and consensus favorites on PrizePicks Team Picks, where users can select the winner of each match.
Tennis on PrizePicks received its biggest upgrade yet ahead of the US Open. Users can now combine a player-to-win selection with Player Picks, including aces, total games won, and other statistics.
On PrizePicks Team Picks, a 2x payout represents a return of $200 on a $100 entry, or $20 on a $10 entry. A lower payout multiplier indicates a higher implied probability for that result based on user selections.
Payouts were live at the time of writing and may change. Tennis winner markets are available in 36 states.
Madison Keys vs. Alina Korneeva US Open Prediction
- Match winner payouts: Keys 1.31x | Korneeva 3.22x
- Tournament round: First round
- 2026 record entering the US Open: Keys 33-14 | Korneeva 37-14
- Head-to-head record: First career meeting
- Scheduled time: 11:30 a.m. ET
- How to watch: ESPN
Madison Keys has enjoyed a solid season, reaching the round of 16 at each of the other three majors and winning a WTA 250 title in Eastbourne. However, she has slipped outside the top 20 after losing ranking points at the Australian Open and French Open.
Keys opened the North American hard-court swing with early exits in Washington and Toronto. She regained some momentum in Cincinnati by reaching the quarterfinals before losing in three sets to a red-hot Sara Bejlek. Bejlek also defeated Aryna Sabalenka on her way to the semifinals.
Alina Korneeva began 2026 ranked outside the top 200 but has climbed into the top 70 ahead of the US Open. This summer, she reached the semifinals in Athens and the round of 16 in Toronto, earning notable wins over Ann Li, Emma Navarro, and Iva Jovic, all of whom are currently ranked in the top 30.
Korneeva’s recent form could make this a difficult first-round match for Keys. Still, the 19-year-old Russian has limited Grand Slam experience, with this being only her fourth appearance in a major main draw. She is also facing a player who won the Australian Open just last year.
According to Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, Keys remains the stronger hard-court player and has a 64.0% projected chance of defeating Korneeva.
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Madison Keys vs. Alina Korneeva Pick
Keys’ matches at her last tournament totaled 28, 16, 23, and 32 games.
Korneeva has competed well against top-50 players on hard courts this season, winning four of six matches. All six matches took place on North American hard courts this summer.
In tour-level hard-court matches this year, Keys has held a significant serving advantage. She has won 60.4% of her service points, compared with 54.6% for Korneeva. The Russian has been much more effective on return, however, winning 54.9% of return points compared with 43.5% for Keys.
Tennis Abstract’s hard-court Elo ratings place Korneeva 27th, suggesting that she is considerably more dangerous than her WTA ranking of 69th indicates.
Keys vs. Korneeva pick: 21.5 total games
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Taylor Fritz vs. Darwin Blanch US Open Prediction
- Match winner payouts: Fritz 1.02x | Blanch 14.28x
- Tournament round: First round
- 2026 record entering the US Open: Fritz 31-15 | Blanch 1-3
- Head-to-head record: First career meeting
- Scheduled time: 12:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: ESPN
Taylor Fritz is a heavy favorite against fellow American Darwin Blanch, and the matchup statistics explain why.
Blanch enters the US Open in poor form, having lost seven consecutive matches across all levels since early July. All seven defeats came against players ranked outside the top 50, with world No. 85 Rinky Hijikata representing his highest-ranked opponent during the losing streak.
The 18-year-old has primarily played Challenger events this season and owns an underwhelming 18-22 record across all levels. He is 0-2 against top-50 opponents in his career and has never faced a player ranked inside the top 30.
Fritz enters the tournament ranked No. 10 in the world. Since the start of the grass-court season, he has reached at least the quarterfinals in five of his last six events, including Wimbledon. He also won the title in Washington this summer, further highlighting his strong form.
This appears to be a mismatch between players at very different stages of their careers. Tennis Abstract gives Fritz a 97.9% projected win probability.
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Taylor Fritz vs. Darwin Blanch Pick
Blanch’s last four losses all came in straight sets. Those opponents were ranked 108th, 99th, 175th, and 85th.
Fritz is 6-1 against players ranked outside the top 100 this year. His only loss came on clay, which is easily his weakest surface. In those six wins, he dropped only one set, and three of his straight-set victories came at Grand Slam tournaments.
Fritz has won 70.6% of his service points on hard courts in 2026, the fifth-best mark among top-50 players. His 17.6% ace rate in that sample ranks second.
Blanch has lost six of his eight tour-level hard-court matches. Both of his wins came against players ranked outside the top 70.
Fritz vs. Blanch pick: 31 total games
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Adolfo Daniel Vallejo vs. Gael Monfils US Open Prediction
- Match winner payouts: Vallejo 1.69x | Monfils 2.08x
- Tournament round: First round
- 2026 record entering the US Open: Vallejo 13-11 | Monfils 4-9
- Head-to-head record: First career meeting
- Scheduled time: 7 p.m. ET
- How to watch: ESPN2
Gael Monfils plans to retire at the end of the season, but he will have at least one more opportunity to entertain the US Open crowd. The Frenchman turns 40 today and may have already produced the shot of the tournament in mixed doubles last week.
Monfils’ trademark athleticism still appears in flashes, but his 4-9 singles record reflects his struggles to win matches while playing a limited schedule. Even so, he could be competitive against Adolfo Daniel Vallejo.
The 22-year-old Vallejo has played a schedule heavily weighted toward clay and has only six tour-level hard-court matches to his name, all of them coming this summer. He split those matches 3-3, although his most recent appearance ended in a 6-2, 6-0 loss to Botic van de Zandschulp.
Vallejo owns a mediocre 14-19 career record across all levels on hard courts, with most of those matches coming against players ranked outside the top 100.
Three of Monfils’ four wins this year have come on hard courts. He still ranks 38th on the surface in Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings. Although he went 1-2 in his two tournaments before arriving in New York, both losses went to a deciding third set. One of those defeats came against Learner Tien, who is currently ranked 15th.
Despite Vallejo’s respectable results during his recent hard-court run, Tennis Abstract ranks him 149th on the surface, compared with 76th on clay.
At his age, Monfils has been susceptible to tiring during long matches, and that remains a concern Tuesday night. If his body holds up, however, his experience could prove decisive against a clay specialist making his US Open debut.
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Adolfo Daniel Vallejo vs. Gael Monfils Pick
Both of Monfils’ Grand Slam matches in 2026 have lasted at least four sets, producing 47 and 40 total games.
Monfils is a more competitive 3-3 against players ranked outside the top 50 on hard courts this season.
Across Vallejo’s six summer hard-court matches, he has posted a modest 6.5% ace rate and an elevated 7.4% double-fault rate. That combination could leave him more vulnerable to breaks of serve.
Vallejo has also returned effectively, breaking opponents 25.5% of the time in those matches. That could help him challenge Monfils, who has produced tour-average serve shot quality over the past 52 weeks, according to Tennis Data Innovations.
Vallejo vs. Monfils pick: 38.5 total games
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Make US Open Picks Today on PrizePicks
The first round concludes Tuesday with Madison Keys, Taylor Fritz, and Gael Monfils among the most notable players in action. The three featured matches offer contrasting storylines, from Keys facing an improving young opponent to Fritz entering as a major favorite and Monfils competing in what may be his final US Open.
Make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks before Tuesday’s matches begin.
Users can pick players and predict More or Less on statistics such as games won and aces, or make match-winner selections through Team Picks, which are available in 36 states.
Stay tuned to Playbook for daily US Open predictions, tennis picks, and PrizePicks analysis throughout the tournament.
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