NFL Week 2 Against the Spread Picks: Best Bets, Underdogs, and Overreactions
We are one week into the NFL season, and the hot takes are already flying. Despite a coach’s preseason declaration that Justin Herbert might become the greatest quarterback ever, the Los Angeles Chargers collapsed against the Arizona Cardinals. The media is overreacting, predicting immediate turnarounds for teams that looked bad. This preview avoids the knee-jerk narratives and focuses on the numbers, matchups, and situational spots that actually matter against the spread.
Week 1 Performance Recap
Last week’s record: 3-2 on best bets, 5-10-1 overall against the spread. Cold feet on the New York Giants and Cardinals cost us, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would have covered easily if Baker Mayfield hadn’t fumbled three times. Expect better discipline this week.
Thursday Night Football
Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills (-4.5) | 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime
In hindsight, backing Josh Allen against a team that embarrassed him last year should have been the easy Week 1 play. Allen was aggressive and picked apart the Houston Texans. Now he opens the Bills’ new stadium against a Lions defense missing key pieces in the secondary and on the offensive line.
However, if C.J. Stroud can keep it close against Buffalo, Jared Goff can too. Detroit may have been looking past the New Orleans Saints toward this prime-time showdown. The Lions lost 48-42 to Allen’s Bills in 2024.
The pick: Lions +4.5
Sunday Early Slate
Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) at Tennessee Titans | 1 p.m. ET, Fox
This shapes up as the biggest game of the Robert Saleh era in Tennessee. The Titans came out flat in his debut, and an ugly home loss to Philadelphia — with road games against the Giants and Baltimore Ravens looming — would bury their season. Cam Ward is not walking through that door to save Saleh; his 9.2% sack rate since entering the league ranks fourth-highest among quarterbacks, despite facing a below-average blitz rate (24% vs. league average 26%).
Conversely, the Eagles have a happy Jalen Hurts and travel exceptionally well under Nick Sirianni, winning at a league-best 70% rate on the road since his arrival.
The pick: Eagles -7.5
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-2.5) | 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Texans defense is too talented not to rebound. Houston allowed 11 explosive plays (runs ≥12 yards, passes ≥16 yards) to Buffalo, and the 11.5 yards per pass attempt surrendered was the worst mark under DeMeco Ryans (since 2023). Add in Joe Burrow’s sore back, and the home side looks vulnerable.
The pick: Texans -2.5
Carolina Panthers (-2.5) at Atlanta Falcons | 1 p.m. ET, Fox
This screams trap. Bryce Young set career highs in yards per completion (15.7) and first-down rate per passing attempt (46%) while throwing for 361 yards in a loss to Chicago. Meanwhile, the Falcons offense stalled with Cooper Rush against a lethargic Pittsburgh Steelers defense. Yet Carolina is not even laying a full field goal? The value is on the home underdog.
The pick: Falcons +2.5
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at New York Jets | 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Jets defense looked legitimate against Tennessee, and that confidence should carry over. Prediction: New York records its first interception since Week 18 of the 2024 season. Green Bay went 2-6 against the Lions from 2021–24 when Aaron Glenn (now Jets head coach) was Detroit’s defensive coordinator, throwing nine interceptions — the most against any coordinator in that span. Expect a tight game decided by a field goal.
The pick: Jets +3.5
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5) | 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Baker Mayfield revenge narrative writes itself. Mayfield atones for last week’s fumbles against the franchise that drafted him first overall in 2018 and moved on. Cleveland hitched its wagon to the wrong quarterback; this is likely Deshaun Watson’s final start for the Browns. Their home opener arrives next week, and fans will boo — not primarily for off-field issues, but because his on-field play has been awful since he lost his confidence years ago.
The pick: Buccaneers -7.5
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-5.5) | 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Ben Johnson is dead serious about shattering offensive records. He has produced two 500-yard games since his hiring a year ago, matching the franchise total from the previous 25 years. Caleb Williams has ample weapons and has become a composed operator; he should handle Minnesota’s hyper-aggressive defense (78% blitz rate) far better than Jordan Love did in Green Bay’s collapse last week.
The pick: Bears -5.5
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) | 1 p.m. ET, CBS
My Super Bowl and MVP tickets on Lamar Jackson have early life. Jackson was ruthlessly efficient under new offensive coordinator (and Ben Johnson disciple) Declan Doyle. Now they face a Saints run defense that bears no resemblance to last year’s sixth-ranked unit, surrendering 5 yards per carry against Detroit.
The pick: Ravens -7.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-5.5) | 1 p.m. ET, CBS
A genuine toss-up. Pittsburgh’s offense lacks difference-makers, and Aaron Rodgers loves standing tall in the pocket almost as much as he enjoys his public health commentary. However, DK Metcalf should rebound from a rough debut featuring drops and penalties.
New England cratered after A.J. Brown’s injury in the opener; Drake Maye threw all three interceptions after that point, and his passer rating plummeted from 79.5 to 60.7. Back the superior pass rush and the points.
The pick: Steelers +5.5
Sunday Afternoon Slate
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) | 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
The Justin Herbert debate arrives early. Having watched Herbert in practice repeatedly, I understand Jim Harbaugh’s faith. The throws are breathtaking. Perhaps new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel overcomplicated things in Week 1, and the Chargers defense has flown under the radar.
Las Vegas (and its secondary) is a classic “get-well” opponent; their decisive win over the Dolphins means little long-term. If Los Angeles doesn’t win comfortably, the Herbert faithful can officially panic.
The pick: Chargers -6.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (-2.5) | 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
Trevor Lawrence commanded the offense last week — against Cleveland, admittedly — and Liam Coen has instantly established himself as an elite play-caller. They face a Broncos defense that missed 28 tackles against Kansas City on Monday night, yielding 247 yards after missed tackles — the most by any NFL defense since 2018, per Next Gen Stats.
The pick: Jaguars +2.5
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) | 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
After an offseason of hype, Dallas’ defense was alarmingly porous Sunday night. The Giants converted 9 of 11 third downs (the only failure was a game-ending kneeldown), and the Cowboys linebackers looked lost. Improvement is mandatory, especially with Washington averaging only 8.8 yards to go on third down in their loss to Philadelphia. But the fix won’t be instant. Take the points.
The pick: Commanders +4.5
Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals | 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The least surprising Week 1 takeaway: Seattle’s defense remains elite, even shorthanded. It must carry the load again against red-hot Arizona, with Drew Lock replacing injured Sam Darnold at quarterback.
Jacoby Brissett — a richer man’s Drew Lock — kept the ball 15 minutes longer than the Chargers did last week and is receiving heavy public backing. Historically, that is when Brissett regresses, and against this defense, no one will blame him.
The pick: Seahawks -3.5
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers (-13.5) | 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
Here is an overreaction worth making: Miami goes 0-17. The dead cap space, roster holes, and brutal schedule were detailed last week; they also entered the season as the least-experienced team (608 career starts) in NFL history. San Francisco returns from a “road” win over the Rams in Australia, and even with jet lag and a letdown spot, the 49ers’ backups could likely handle this Dolphins team.
The pick: 49ers -13.5
Sunday Night Football
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) | 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
The new-look Chiefs — 31 designed runs against Denver after averaging 21 over the previous seven years — face the old-look Colts. Tenth-year GM Chris Ballard and fourth-year coach Shane Steichen watched Indianapolis lose the trench battle in the opener, while savior Daniel Jones couldn’t locate open receivers.
Indy’s response: strip the defensive green dot from safety Cam Bynum and give it to linebacker Akeem Davis-Gaither, who will presumably tell his teammates the Chiefs’ passing game is no longer dangerous. That adjustment screams cover.
The pick: Colts +6.5
Monday Night Football
New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) | 8:15 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN
Jaxson Dart exploited poor Dallas linebacker and cornerback play last week, and he boasts a dynamic 1-2 punch with Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely. That should keep New York competitive against a Rams defense missing Myles Garrett.
The pick: Giants +6.5
Week 2 Best Bets & Upset Special
Best Bets (Spread Coverage)
- Baltimore Ravens -7.5
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7.5
- Los Angeles Chargers -6.5
- Houston Texans -2.5
Dog of the Week: Detroit Lions +4.5
Upset Special (Spread ≥ 3 Points)
Pittsburgh Steelers +180 (Using 50-simoleon units; down 50 on the season.)
TruMedia research courtesy of Jason Starrett.
