Two of baseball’s most notable disappointments in the 2026 season are Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh and Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes. After establishing themselves as elite stars last year, both players are searching for answers as the regular season winds down.
Cal Raleigh’s Power Outage
Raleigh, the 2025 American League MVP runner-up, posted 60 home runs, 125 RBI, and a .948 OPS last season. Through 112 games in 2026, his line has plummeted to .183/.296/.374 with a .670 OPS, 21 homers, and 59 RBI. One National League scout described the campaign as an extremely
weird season for Raleigh.
“Some of the batted ball data is down a notch, but the swing characteristics have remained the same from last year,” the scout said.
Another NL scout offered a deeper diagnosis of Raleigh’s struggles.
“There has always been a lot of swing-and-miss (with Raleigh),” the scout said. “Raleigh is also weaker (hitting) from the right side. Teams are just throwing lefties at him as much as possible. He also caught a lot last year and the only teams that played more games than him were the two World Series teams, so there was going to be regression there.”
The numbers back up the left-handed pitching theory. Raleigh is hitting just .161/.265/.308 with a .573 OPS and seven home runs against lefties in 2026. His strikeout rate sits at 31.3 percent (bottom sixth percentile), per Baseball Savant, after fanning 188 times last season.
An oblique injury complicated matters further. Raleigh missed over a month from May 14 to June 16 with a right oblique strain he initially tried to play through. The same scout believes the injury and increased defensive attention have compounded his issues.
“(Raleigh) tried to play through an injury. The combination of the (oblique) injury and teams paying more attention to him,” the scout said. “Nobody around him is having a good year. Nobody is hitting around him. He’s always going to be closer to Kyle Schwarber numbers as opposed to Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman numbers.”
Paul Skenes’ Velocity and Command Questions
Skenes entered 2026 on the heels of back-to-back sub-2.00 ERA seasons. His first nine starts this year produced a 1.98 ERA, but the ensuing 20 starts since May 17 have ballooned his season ERA to 3.83.
Scout No. 1, whose team has faced Skenes multiple times, reported concerning feedback from hitters.
“We’ve faced Skenes numerous times and in his most recent start against us a little over a month ago, our hitters were saying that the stuff was flat,” the scout said of Skenes. “Obviously the four-seam velocity is down, which could be due to a variety of factors including fatigue. “
The scout also cited mechanical adjustments visible on video.
“Another mechanical thing that I’ve been hearing is due to the posture and weight distribution on the lift,” the scout said. “Weight is concentrated in the middle of his heel. He rocks back and then has a more pronounced torso crunch/dive as he goes into his stride. Seems to be counter-rotating more than in the past, which could be compensation for something. “
“There appears to be other things just checking out some video with the arm path being longer and the timing being off (not doing the glove tap anymore).”
Scout No. 2 offered a more optimistic perspective, suggesting the velocity dip may be intentional workload management.
“Looking under the hood at his numbers, outside of the ERA, everything else is about consistent with where he has been at,” the scout said. “His velocity is down, but I think that’s by design. It’s not sustainable to start 30 games per year and average 99 mph on your fastball. “
“I think he is throttling his velo. The Chris Sales, Justin Verlanders, Max Scherzers, have all learned to throttle their velo. Skenes wants to post 30 starts per year. The Pirates have pushed him pretty hard. He’s a big body, so I think he’s going for longevity and doesn’t want to blow out (his arm).”
