All prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods similar to those used in MLB front offices. The system accounts for player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and other factors. Betting projections for every player, team and game are available through EV Analytics.
Expected Value measures how favorable a bet is by comparing its probability of winning with the odds offered by the sportsbook. For example, if you placed a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some bets and lose others but would expect to finish with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Additional resources include fantasy lineup advice, World Series odds and Fantasy Buzz.
Tuesday’s Top Batter Prop Bets
- Eugenio Suarez: Over 0.5 home runs (+464). Projection: 20% chance of hitting, with a $12.63 EV.
- Brett Baty: Over 0.5 home runs (+1000). Projection: 10% chance of hitting, with a $13.96 EV.
- Julio Rodriguez: Over 0.5 RBIs (+231). Projection: 36% chance of hitting, with a $19.79 EV.
- Bryan Reynolds: Over 0.5 RBIs (+223). Projection: 36% chance of hitting, with a $16.83 EV.
- Mauricio Dubon: Under 1.5 hits, runs and RBIs (+121). Projection: 52% chance of hitting, with a $14.48 EV.
Tuesday’s Top Pitcher Prop Bets
- Jesus Luzardo: Under 5.5 strikeouts (+125). Projection: 56% chance of hitting, with a $26.45 EV.
- Nick Lodolo: Over 4.5 strikeouts (+113). Projection: 58% chance of hitting, with a $24.20 EV.
- Matthew Boyd: Over 4.5 strikeouts (+106). Projection: 57% chance of hitting, with a $16.74 EV.
- Eric Lauer: Under 4.5 strikeouts (-168). Projection: 73% chance of hitting, with a $27.91 EV.
- Gerrit Cole: Under 6.5 strikeouts (-118). Projection: 60% chance of hitting, with a $13.02 EV.
THE BAT X Team Projections
| Pitcher | Moneyline | Projected win% | Moneyline value% | Run line | Run-line value% | Game total | Over/under | Total value% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Webb | +138 | 40.1 | -4.66 | +1.0 -115 | -7.21 | 7.5 | O -102 | 8.83 |
| Paul Skenes | -167 | 59.9 | -4.17 | -1.0 -113 | -5.05 | U -118 | -18.47 | |
| Spencer Arrighetti | +153 | 39.2 | -0.82 | +1.0 +102 | -4.98 | 8.0 | O -105 | 9.13 |
| Gavin Williams | -186 | 60.8 | -6.50 | -1.0 -133 | -7.22 | U -115 | -15.20 | |
| Randy Vásquez | -142 | 48.4 | -17.57 | -1.0 -117 | -21.05 | 9.5 | O -107 | 10.08 |
| Nick Lodolo | +118 | 51.6 | 12.55 | +1.0 -111 | 9.17 | U -112 | -0.47 | |
| Sean Manaea | +109 | 49.0 | 2.47 | +1.0 -143 | 1.98 | 8.0 | O -110 | 9.31 |
| Freddy Peralta | -131 | 51.0 | -10.12 | -1.0 +110 | -16.02 | U -110 | -15.90 | |
| Bryan Woo | +104 | 46.8 | -4.51 | +1.0 -153 | -4.87 | 7.0 | O -124 | 9.20 |
| Jedixson Paez | -126 | 53.2 | -4.60 | -1.0 +117 | -7.84 | U +103 | -30.76 | |
| AJ Smith-Shawver | -182 | 56.4 | -12.55 | -1.5 -111 | -9.04 | 10.0 | O -105 | 10.36 |
| Jake Irvin | +150 | 43.6 | 8.90 | +1.5 -109 | -0.01 | U -114 | 0.62 | |
| Tyler Phillips | +100 | 51.1 | 2.18 | +1.0 -153 | 1.60 | 9.5 | O -114 | 11.08 |
| Randy Dobnak | -120 | 48.9 | -10.31 | -1.0 +117 | -16.32 | U -106 | -14.28 | |
| Troy Melton | -120 | 46.5 | -14.70 | -1.0 +106 | -16.53 | 8.5 | O -118 | 9.27 |
| Connor Prielipp | +100 | 53.5 | 6.94 | +1.0 -137 | 2.90 | U -102 | -2.96 | |
| Robert Gasser | +105 | 46.9 | -3.90 | +1.0 -142 | -3.71 | 10.5 | O -109 | 9.92 |
| Matthew Boyd | -126 | 53.1 | -4.72 | -1.0 +109 | -9.09 | U -110 | 17.22 | |
| Kade Morris | +163 | 31.3 | -17.71 | +1.5 -136 | -11.40 | 7.5 | O +100 | 7.80 |
| MacKenzie Gore | -199 | 68.7 | 3.24 | -1.5 +113 | 4.24 | U -120 | -3.53 | |
| Sean Burke | -123 | 48.6 | -11.94 | -1.0 +107 | -11.13 | 8.5 | O -105 | 9.09 |
| Mike Burrows | +102 | 51.4 | 3.89 | +1.0 -139 | -1.87 | U -115 | -5.51 | |
| Kyle Bradish | -144 | 54.3 | -7.96 | -1.0 -123 | -3.62 | 11.0 | O -114 | 11.81 |
| Gabriel Hughes | +119 | 45.7 | 0.04 | +1.0 -106 | -8.97 | U -106 | -3.20 | |
| Gerrit Cole | -190 | 56.0 | -14.53 | -1.5 -110 | -15.60 | 7.5 | O -118 | 8.11 |
| Grayson Rodriguez | +156 | 44.0 | 12.67 | +1.5 -110 | 6.51 | U -102 | -0.80 | |
| Jesús Luzardo | -142 | 56.2 | -4.17 | -1.0 -111 | -1.38 | 7.5 | O -113 | 8.94 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | +118 | 43.8 | -4.58 | +1.0 -117 | -10.75 | U -106 | -15.89 | |
| Michael McGreevy | +147 | 41.0 | 1.25 | +1.0 +100 | -3.30 | 9.0 | O +100 | 9.75 |
| Eric Lauer | -178 | 59.0 | -7.84 | -1.0 -129 | -8.31 | U -120 | -8.11 |
Top MLB Betting Trends
Trends can provide a useful snapshot of recent team performance, but past results are not fully predictive of future outcomes. These are among the strongest current trends and should not necessarily be treated as recommendations for today’s action.
- Kansas City Royals moneyline: The Royals are seeking to extend a seven-game home winning streak. Record: +7.00 units and 70% ROI. Current odds: -120.
- Colorado Rockies team total under: Colorado has gone under this total in five consecutive games at Coors Field. Record: +5.10 units and 94% ROI. Current odds: 4.5 at +100.
- Atlanta Braves team total under: The Braves have stayed under this total in 14 of their last 15 road contests. Record: +12.95 units and 71% ROI. Current odds: 5.5 at -115.
- Arizona Diamondbacks first-five-innings team total under: Arizona has gone under this total in six straight games at Chase Field. Record: +6.70 units and 104% ROI. Current odds: 1.5 at -110.
Source: www.espn.com
