Senate Control Up for Grabs as Midterms Approach
Republicans appeared to have a firm grip on the Senate heading into the final two years of President Donald Trump’s term. With less than two months until Election Day, however, control of the chamber is now up for grabs. Democrats find themselves competing in states that once seemed beyond their reach, driven by President Trump’s slipping approval ratings and widespread voter dissatisfaction with the economy. Simultaneously, races Democrats once counted on winning have grown more complicated. The battle is expected to exceed $3.4 billion in spending across all races during the midterm campaign, with huge implications for Trump’s agenda and his ability to fill administration jobs and open court seats, as the Senate confirms or blocks presidential nominees.
Republicans say it is unlikely for everything to break in Democrats’ favor, but they acknowledge a difficult landscape. Senate Majority Leader John Thune told South Dakota’s KELOLAND News last week that he does worry
about losing the chamber.
“I’m a realist,” Thune said. “I don’t ever try and sugarcoat things. I think it’s a competitive environment right now.”
Democrats Face Scrambled Path to Majority
Democrats need to net four seats to win the majority. The original path involved holding Michigan, Georgia, and New Hampshire while winning back Republican-held seats in Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio. That map has shifted.
“We now have multiple paths for the majority,” Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said last month. “We found new states — Iowa, Texas — which people a year ago weren’t even paying attention to.”
Michigan and Maine Races Grow Murkier
Some states where Democrats were most optimistic, such as Michigan and Maine, have become less clear. In Michigan, where an open seat is up this fall, no GOP candidate has won a Senate race since 1994. Yet Democrats are struggling to unite behind nominee Abdul El-Sayed. The progressive favorite narrowly defeated moderate U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens in the August primary, leaving feelings raw after a bruising contest that saw nearly $70 million spent against El-Sayed.
Republicans believe Mike Rogers, who lost the 2024 Senate race by fewer than 20,000 votes, has an improved shot against El-Sayed. The Senate Leadership Fund — Senate Republicans’ spending PAC — added $6 million to its Michigan advertising investment after El-Sayed’s primary win, bringing total spending to $51 million, the third-highest total.
Democrats also saw a prime opportunity to defeat five-term Republican Sen. Susan Collins in Maine, where Vice President Kamala Harris won more votes than Trump in 2024. Progressive Graham Platner easily won the nomination in June but left the race the next month over a sexual assault allegation he denies. Democratic delegates chose Troy Jackson, a lesser-known former state legislative leader, as replacement in late July. Jackson has been forced to play catch-up. Collins and aligned super PACs have spent almost $80 million so far, according to AdImpact, while Jackson and Democratic-aligned groups have spent and reserved close to $45 million since he became the nominee.
Democratic Opportunities Expand in Texas, Iowa, Alaska, Ohio
As one path narrowed, others widened. Democrats increasingly see a real possibility in Texas, a state that has been an elusive goal for decades, and in other GOP-led states including Iowa, Alaska, and Ohio.
In Texas, Democrat James Talarico faces state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who ousted four-term incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn to win the GOP nomination. Senate GOP leadership backed Cornyn, viewing him as the stronger general election candidate. Paxton has been shadowed for decades by legal and ethical questions, including indictments for securities fraud, though he was not convicted. Talarico and allied groups have spent nearly $30 million on advertising since the May runoff, compared to less than $3 million by pro-Paxton groups. The political fund associated with Trump last week spent $10 million on TV and digital ads to help Paxton — the first major general election investment by MAGA Inc. for the midterms. Senate GOP leaders had petitioned Trump’s political team to spend some of the more than $400 million it held last month to aid Paxton.
Democrats have also upped spending in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and North Carolina, all currently held by Republicans. The GOP, meanwhile, is feeling more optimistic about New Hampshire as well as Michigan, while spending more to defend seats in Iowa and Alaska. The expanded map has increased anticipated total spending; AdImpact in June projected $3.4 billion in advertising spending on Senate races, a significant increase from the $2.8 billion projected in fall 2025.
Economic Concerns Drive Voter Dissatisfaction
Democrats’ path has widened partly because of Trump’s slumping job approval, notably on handling the economy, which stood at 32% according to an AP-NORC poll in July — down from 40% in March 2025, shortly after he took office. Trump’s trade policies and the war in Iran, with corresponding inflated fuel costs, have added to economic uncertainty for voters less than two months before Election Day.
“Things still cost too much. And so we’ve got to work on that issue,” Republican Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio told The Associated Press. “We understand that and we know that’s real.”
Ohio Sen. Jon Husted heard the concern firsthand at a roundtable last month as he fends off a comeback from former Sen. Sherrod Brown in another key matchup. During a discussion on housing, one attendee told Husted costs were skyrocketing
in part due to uncertainty around tariffs.
“Uncertainty is the killer to this economy,” said Dean Windham, a real estate developer who previously ran for office as a Republican.
Republican Candidates Navigate Trump’s Policies
Some Republican Senate candidates have defended Trump’s policies while confronting concerns about their economic impact. In Michigan, where Trump’s tariffs on Canada have become a central issue, Rogers has backed the president’s approach while leaving room for disagreement.
“President Trump is right to put America First — and tariffs are necessary, but are not a one-size-fits-all solution,” Rogers said in a recent statement.
GOP Confident in Structural Advantages
Republicans believe the math still favors them. Even if Democrats hold every seat they currently control, they would need to flip at least two seats in states Trump carried by double digits in 2024 to win the majority. Republicans are betting those underlying advantages will matter more as Election Day approaches, particularly as Trump and the party turn toward mobilizing voters who helped return him to the White House.
Trump told reporters last week that he will be making a lot of stops
in the last 30 days before the election. Next week, Republicans will hold a midterm convention in Texas, where Trump is set to speak and top Senate candidates including Rogers and Husted are expected to attend.
But Republicans acknowledge they have work to do.
“Politics is local,” Republican Sen. Mike Rounds of South Dakota said. He pointed to Trump’s decision to import beef, which he said made farmers and ranchers “feel just like the administration pulled the rug right off from underneath” them.
“They’re hurt,” Rounds said. “They feel like they’ve been let down.”
