El Niño Strengthens: California and Southeast Face Greatest Impacts This Winter
California and the southeastern United States could experience the most significant effects of a strengthening El Niño, which is projected to be more powerful this winter than it has been in decades. A meteorologist from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Weather Prediction Center (WPC) shared the outlook with Newsweek on Monday.
El Niño is intensifying across the Pacific Ocean and may bring severe weather to the U.S. over the coming months, extending into early 2027. While impacts will be felt nationwide, certain states face a heightened risk of particularly severe storms. Historically, strong El Niño events have triggered flooding, damaging storms, drought, and record-breaking heat across the globe.
According to NOAA’s WPC, there is a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event this year, with key implications for millions of Americans.
What Is El Niño?
El Niño represents the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring climate pattern driven by interactions between the Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere. Its counterpart, La Niña, is the cool phase of the cycle. The pattern is defined by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific, which typically bring stormier weather to the southern U.S. and drier conditions to parts of the north. It can also influence hurricane activity.
“El Niño means the sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific, along the equator, so off the coast of South America, off the coast of Central America, are above normal,” Tony Fracasso, a meteorologist with the WPC, told Newsweek. “That’s where they are now, and that’s what the forecast will be going into the winter.”
Some of the strongest El Niño episodes on record have coincided with major weather extremes. The 1997‑98 Super El Niño contributed to destructive flooding in California and Peru, while the 2015‑16 event was associated with global temperature records and widespread climate disruptions.
These States Could See the Greatest Impact
California and the Southeast are likely to see more intense storms due to El Niño, Fracasso said.
“It can affect the storm track across the country, and the amount of warm air that it could bring in over the country and keep the colder air out of the lower 48,” he said.
California is expected to receive more storms, and that moisture will be carried across the country, leading to a warmer winter for most areas. Fracasso noted that every El Niño “is different,” and there have been instances where it does not bring as much rain or snow to California. However, over the past 75 years, the state has generally seen more rain during El Niño events.
The South also typically sees wetter conditions, he added. States along the Gulf Coast and potentially the Carolinas could experience much wetter conditions this year. Overall, El Niño brings warmer temperatures, but cold air and the potential for snow remain possible. Some areas further north around the Great Lakes may see drier conditions, Fracasso said.
NOAA wrote in its August 13 discussion that El Niño was expected to continue strengthening through the end of this year. The agency predicted a 69 percent chance of a “historic event” exceeding the strength of previous El Niños dating back to 1950.
“In summary, El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27,” the forecast reads.
Other areas in the West—including California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona—could also see more snow this winter, Newsweek previously reported.
Forecaster Predicts ‘Unprecedented’ Events
Jeff Berardelli, a meteorologist with WFLA-TV in Tampa, wrote in a post to X on Monday that there is likely to be a “boost” to El Niño in the next few weeks.
“Humans have never seen such an episode, so I’d expect some unprecedented events.”
“A “major push of west winds in the Tropical Pacific” will increase warming, resulting in a peak strength about 4.0° Celsius higher than normal, breaking a 2015 record, he wrote.
“For the US South and #Florida this means a strong subtropical jet stream will form by late fall, with frequent fronts, severe weather, and weekly rainfall – #California will also cash in on this extra rain come winter,” Berardelli wrote.
According to NOAA, a subtropical jet stream is a narrow band of fast-flowing westerly winds high in the atmosphere, typically located near 30 degrees latitude in both hemispheres.
The ‘Super El Niño’
This year’s El Niño has been referred to as a “Super El Niño,” an informal term used to describe especially strong events. It was most recently used in 2015 and 2016, when Pacific Ocean temperatures were higher than typical conditions.
Fracasso said there are “still a lot of unknowns” as to why this year’s El Niño is so strong.
“We don’t know fully what the interaction is. It’s, it’s an oceanic deep in the currents, well below the sea level affecting the atmosphere above the ocean. And that interaction is hard to model. So, we don’t quite fully understand everything that’s going on,” he said.
What Happens Next
NOAA is set to release its next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion on September 10, providing further information about how El Niño could impact weather this winter.
