Bitcoin Price Analysis: Key Support Trendline Holds $61,500 Downside Target for Late 2026
Bitcoin (BTC) could decline to $61,500 by the end of October 2026 if a critical support trendline fails, according to a technical analysis published by TradingShot on September 11. The bearish outlook draws parallels to chart patterns that preceded Bitcoin’s two largest sell-offs earlier this year.
Repeated 50-Week MA Rejection Forms Bearish Arc Pattern
The analyst noted that Bitcoin has been rejected by its 50-week moving average (MA) for three consecutive weeks. This repeated rejection has generated bearish momentum and formed an arc pattern that closely resembles the structures preceding the January and May 2026 market tops.
The May peak is highlighted as particularly relevant because Bitcoin was rejected at the 200-day MA — a situation analogous to the current rejection at the 50-week MA. Both earlier patterns were followed by sharp corrections.
Higher-Lows Trendline Break Could Confirm New Bearish Leg
Traders should closely monitor Bitcoin’s higher-lows trendline, which has acted as critical support during the current recovery phase. The analysis indicates that in both January and May, a breakdown below this trendline triggered aggressive selling pressure and accelerated Bitcoin’s decline. A similar breakdown now would likely confirm a new bearish leg for the market.
Adding to the bearish case, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) structure closely mirrors the formations that developed before the previous two corrections, reinforcing the possibility of another downside move.
$61,500 Target Based on 3.5 Fibonacci Extension
If the higher-lows trendline breaks, the expert expects Bitcoin to decline toward the 3.5 Fibonacci extension level at $61,500. This bearish target is derived from Bitcoin’s previous two major corrections in 2026, both of which bottomed at the 3.5 Fibonacci extension while the daily RSI dropped to 15.80. The analyst noted that a similar RSI reading could signal another market bottom.
Bearish Invalidation and Key Support Levels
The bearish outlook would be invalidated if Bitcoin closes a weekly candle above the 50-week MA. The analyst also highlighted the 250-week MA as a key support level after it held the July 1 low. A breakout above the 50-week MA could potentially confirm a new bull cycle.
Short-Term Outlook: Consolidation With $78,000 as Key Resistance
Separately, market analyst Michaël van de Poppe maintained a more constructive short-term outlook in an X post on September 14, noting that Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase.
Nothing has changed on #Bitcoin as it’s still consolidating here.I’d much rather want to see that we’re breaking through $78,000 as that would trigger strength on #Altcoins.The crucial one, if that breaks, we’re likely running towards new highs in the upcoming weeks. pic.twitter.com/XT7E0LqprY
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) September 14, 2026
According to his analysis, the key level to watch is $78,000. A breakout above that resistance could strengthen momentum across the broader cryptocurrency market, particularly altcoins. The analyst suggested that clearing $78,000 would increase the likelihood of Bitcoin advancing toward new highs in the coming weeks.
Meanwhile, as of press time, Bitcoin was trading at $78,013, up about 1.7% over the past 24 hours. On the weekly chart, the cryptocurrency remained down 1.5%.
