Emmy Awards 2025 Predictions: Final 19 Primetime Categories Analysis
Last Friday, my Emmy Awards predictions Part 1 covered select categories among the 102 awards handed out over the weekend. The headline read: “Pete Hammond’s Emmy Predictions, Part 1: Are ‘DTF St Louis’, Taylor Swift, Bad Bunny, Jimmy Kimmel, Rob Reiner & More Heading For Early Wins This Weekend?” With the exception of Taylor Swift, who experienced a rare loss, every predicted winner hit the mark — a strong start to the ceremony.
Now we turn to the final 19 categories of Monday’s Primetime Emmy Awards, armed with significantly more information than was available last week. On paper, Widow’s Bay, The Pitt, DTF: St Louis and Stephen Colbert appear positioned as the night’s big winners. Betting against them might seem like a fool’s errand, yet the Emmys are rarely that predictable, and the two-day Creative Arts ceremonies can be misleading.
Comedy Series: Widow’s Bay vs. Hacks
The most impressive aspect of Widow’s Bay’s sweep of eight wins (out of 19 total nominations) is that it was a late breaker — its final episodes weren’t even eligible. This suggests Television Academy branches (all voting except Outstanding Program categories are branch-specific) flipped for the show and watched it just before voting began, keeping it fresh in mind. This despite Hacks earning a record 24 nominations for its fifth and final season, far more than ever before, and appearing poised to dominate.
The only head-to-head matchup where Hacks prevailed last weekend was in Picture Editing — a positive sign for the veteran HBO Max comedy. Before that win, Hacks had won only a single crafts category in its history (Contemporary Costume Design in 2022). In 2024, Hacks pulled a stunning upset over The Bear’s second season to claim its sole Comedy Series Emmy, winning just two other awards (Comedy Writing and Lead Actress Jean Smart) compared to The Bear’s 11. Could history repeat against Widow’s Bay?
Widow’s Bay could still add more wins and end up in the same position as The Bear that year. It may well set a Comedy record even if it eventually loses the top prize. If above-the-line enthusiasm matches the below-the-line strength, watch out — so far, Betty Gilpin’s Guest Comedy Actress win is its only above-the-line victory, possibly because five Hacks actresses split votes five ways.
The TV Academy has recently favored first-timers, especially from Apple (Ted Lasso, The Studio) and FX’s The Bear in its first season. Voters like shiny new toys, and Widow’s Bay appears strong in writing, directing, Lead Actor and Supporting Actress. Yet uncertainty remains. Hacks could triumph with just a handful of statuettes — notably Jean Smart, maybe writing. Seven of Widow’s Bay’s eight wins are crafts; the comedy/horror hybrid has no peer in production values. But when the full Academy votes, stranger things have happened. Hacks is coming from behind, even after nominations day gave it early frontrunner status for a sterling finale. It could have one last hurrah.
THE WINNER: Hacks
Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
THE WINNER: Matthew Rhys for Widow’s Bay
Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
THE WINNER: Jean Smart for Hacks (setting several records along with it)
Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
THE WINNER: Stephen Root for Widow’s Bay (unless sentiment for Harrison Ford finally sets in)
Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
THE WINNER: Kate O’Flynn for Widow’s Bay
Writing in a Comedy Series
THE WINNER: Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs and Jen Statsky for the Hacks finale
Directing in a Comedy Series
THE WINNER: Hiro Murai for Widow’s Bay
Drama Series: The Pitt Poised for Repeat
No other outcome seems likely than a second-season repeat for industry favorite The Pitt. Night 1 and Night 2 of the Creative Arts Emmys were close numerically: chief competitor Pluribus won three awards to The Pitt’s four. But the innovative medical series should prevail, even if Pluribus creator Vince Gilligan wins writing and/or directing (the Breaking Bad maestro has never personally won in those categories). He must beat both Pitt nominees in writing (who could cancel each other out) and Noah Wyle in directing — not a slam dunk. Task, snubbed in Drama Series, could still spoil both categories, but among nominated series, The Pitt is the expected winner — even Gilligan told me he expects it to win.
THE WINNER: The Pitt
Lead Actor in a Drama Series
THE WINNER: Noah Wyle from The Pitt
Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Zendaya won for the first two seasons of Euphoria, but can she threepeat for a less well-received final season? The actors branch loves her, but the 2022 win may be too distant. This comes down to long-overdue Keri Russell in The Diplomat Season 3 (gaining steam, plus a SAG Actor Award win this year) and Pluribus’ Rhea Seehorn, continually overlooked for Better Call Saul.
THE WINNER: Rhea Seehorn for Pluribus
Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Shawn Hatosy won Guest Actor for The Pitt last year as Dr. Jack Abbot. Now in supporting, he faces co-stars Patrick Ball and Gerran Howell. Do they split the vote, allowing Ball (memorable as Dr. Frank Langdon) to squeak through? If a genuine split occurs, could Task standout Tom Pelphrey surprise? Or will the branch return to an old favorite — the show’s sole nominee, two-time winner Billy Crudup in The Morning Show?
THE WINNER: Patrick Ball for The Pitt
Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Katherine LaNasa won last year and is a frontrunner to repeat, but now joined by three co-stars: Taylor Dearden, Fiona Dourif and Sepideh Moafi — the latter a genuine threat. If they split, look for Allison Janney in The Diplomat (now playing a U.S. President) to make Emmy history, joining Cloris Leachman and Julia Louis-Dreyfus as an eight-time acting winner in a year where Jean Smart is also favored to join that short list.
THE WINNER: Katherine LaNasa for The Pitt
Writing in a Drama Series
THE WINNER: Vince Gilligan for Pluribus
Directing in a Drama Series
THE WINNER: Vince Gilligan for Pluribus
Limited Series or Anthology: DTF St Louis vs. Beef
Early Limited Series predictions hit: writing, directing, supporting actor, supporting actress, cinematography and picture editing for DTF St Louis. At the Oscars, that’s Best Picture pedigree. How can it lose? Beef, sweeping this category in 2023, has name recognition when all voters choose, and this season’s edition may be even better. But HBO flexes its muscle — DTF is favored.
THE WINNER: DTF St Louis
Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Anthology or Television Movie
This category often throws curveballs. On the surface, Oscar Isaac’s Beef performance should win, but don’t discount Charlie Hunnam in Monster: The Ed Gein Story — a dominant performance if voters watched. The rest are past Emmy winners: Matthew Rhys (certain Comedy Actor winner for Widow’s Bay, unlikely to double with The Beast In Me); Riz Ahmed (surprise nomination); Jason Bateman (dark turn in Black Rabbit came almost a year ago — will it be remembered? He has four nominations this year, already lost two, and his best shot is as EP of predicted Limited Series winner DTF St Louis). A win isn’t out of the question for Bateman, possibly representing two outstanding nominated performances (he lost to DTF co-star David Harbour in Supporting Actor last weekend). This category is wide open.
THE WINNER: Oscar Isaac for Beef
Lead Actress in a Limited Series, Anthology or Television Movie
Beloved veterans Sally Field and Claire Danes are in the mix. Field, 79, would be the oldest winner here, truly deserving for Remarkably Bright Creatures (which won TV Movie last weekend) — 50 years after her first win for Sybil. Since TV Movie merged with Limited/Miniseries in 1998, the last TV movie star to win was Julianne Moore as Sarah Palin in Game Change (2012). Limited Series stars hold the advantage. Carey Mulligan is odds-on favorite for Beef and could join co-star Isaac; recent winner Sarah Snook is nominated. But Emmys love anointing breakout newcomers. Sarah Pidgeon, playing Carolyn Bessette in the widely seen Love Story, overcame internet scorn before filming and emerged as the standout.
THE WINNER: Sarah Pidgeon for Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette
Reality Competition Program
Once voters latch onto a show here, they keep checking it off for years. The Traitors won in 2024 and 2025, and added six more wins last weekend. It can’t lose.
THE WINNER: The Traitors
Variety Series: Colbert and Kimmel Could Share the Stage
The Academy keeps tweaking this category. This year returns to true variety: Saturday Night Live, consistent winner Last Week Tonight With John Oliver, hybrid winner The Daily Show, and network late-night shows Jimmy Kimmel Live! (never won) and Late Show With Stephen Colbert (finally won last year after CBS cancellation). Late Show swept five early awards, including beating Oliver and Kimmel in Writing. Its final CBS season (ended May) may carry emotional power and a “f*ck you” to CBS to prevail again.
However, the Academy created a new grab-bag Variety category with different voting: a simple yes/no question — “Does this series deserve an Emmy?” — with a 90% threshold to win; multiple winners are possible. Colbert may be the only show to clear it. I voted “Yes” for both Kimmel and The Daily Show to boost them, assuming Colbert didn’t need help. Hoping for multiple winners, and the Academy is bracing for it. With Kimmel’s FCC troubles and brilliant comeback, wouldn’t it be great if both Colbert and Kimmel passed 90% and stood onstage together — an Emmy moment for the ages? It could happen. I hope it does.
THE WINNER(S): Late Show with Stephen Colbert and Jimmy Kimmel Live!
