El Niño’s warm Pacific waters could influence Southern California weather over Labor Day weekend as Tropical Storm Marie moves north and may strengthen into a hurricane.
Several computer models show Marie approaching the Southern California coast, although forecasts remain uncertain. Some spaghetti models place the storm closer to the region than others, but the majority keep it away from the coast.
Tropical Storm Marie could bring rain, wind and high surf
Current forecasts show Marie over the Pacific Ocean, with some models indicating that it could strengthen into a hurricane by the weekend. If the storm moves near Southern California, it could bring rain, gusty winds and high surf during the Labor Day holiday.
On Tuesday, the National Weather Service said there is a high chance of large waves and strong rip currents for people visiting Southern California beaches. Experts also see a moderate chance of impactful coastal flooding along south-facing shores.
The NWS said there is a moderate chance of light rain affecting holiday events, along with a low chance of moderate to heavy rain, flooding and thunderstorms.
Regardless of Marie’s exact path, forecasters expect the storm to be strong enough to increase surf and rip currents over Labor Day weekend because of the large swell generated by tropical activity.
What are spaghetti models?
These forecast maps are called spaghetti models because their many lines resemble a plate of spaghetti. The lines are produced by some of the world’s fastest computers, which perform billions of calculations to estimate where a tropical system, such as a hurricane, could move.
When the lines cluster together, forecasters have greater confidence in the projected track. Lines spread far apart indicate more uncertainty.
Are all spaghetti models the same?
No. Spaghetti models include several types of forecasting systems, including dynamical, statistical and ensemble models.
Dynamical models use supercomputers to solve physical equations of motion and produce forecasts. Statistical models rely on historical relationships between storm behavior and details specific to the storm, such as its location and the date.
Ensemble, or consensus models, combine forecasts from a collection of other models. All models show a storm’s expected track, and many also estimate how strong the storm could become.
Who makes spaghetti models?
Governments and private companies around the world operate weather models. Some are publicly available, while others are private. The model’s name often identifies the organization responsible for it.
For example, the “Navy Global Environmental Model” is operated by the United States Navy’s Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center.
Other familiar systems include the American (GFS) and European (ECMWF) models, which are run by the U.S. government and a partnership of European countries, respectively.
Various companies combine the forecasts and display them on a single map. CNN, for example, uses a software company to plot the latest models on the CNN Storm Tracker when monitoring active storms.
When should you check spaghetti models?
The simple answer is frequently. Weather models run multiple times a day and can change quickly.
The most important factor is to watch for trends. Check whether the models are shifting north or south, or whether most of them indicate that the storm is moving faster.
Consistency is also important. If the plots are moving north, for example, check whether they have continued shifting in that direction during the past three model updates.
No forecast is perfect, but spaghetti models help show where powerful tropical systems may go. That information can help communities prepare for a potential hurricane.
CNN Wire contributed to this report.
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